introduction to grain futures trading

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Normally I'd agree with you but I'll make a contrary argument.

a. For years Chicago's Mid America Exchange traded 1000 bushel contracts with success. A slew of great traders came from those pits including Rich Dennis.

b. 5000 bushels, particularly in Soybeans, is a large hedge for smaller farms. Not to mention what if a farmer has 7000 bushels to hedge? A full size 1 lot is too little, a 2 lot is too much.

c. I envision a time in the near future when grain prices will be so high and volatility (at least in price if not in % terms) so great that many retail traders will be sized out 5000 bushel contracts in beans.
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Fantastic post, Pabst.

I dont see mini-corn, or mini -soy, heading down the same path as eurex canola, or london wheat.
They were always thin, still worse than woefull, but these new contracts are working off established market bases.

I could be wrong, obviously, but seems to me, a superior product, in an inferior speculative marketplace.
 
Quote from clearpicks:

Can someone tell me where I can find some good introduction (books or websites) to grain futures trading, such as what factors affect the movement of grain futures, seasonal pattern, correlation between ZC, ZS and ZW, etc.? Is there any website where I can check the most recent news moving grain markets? Help is greatly appreciated.
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You might try experimenting and developing your own trading system. Here are the results of a trend following system model for corn futures, 43.17 years of daily price data from 2 July 1959 to 1 October 2002.

===

Number of trades 122
Total profit $ 2673283
Profit after subtracting $ 10.00 commission, slippage per transaction: $ 2670843
Heat is 2.00 per cent of equity.
Greatest draw down is 0.1828 (18.28 per cent).
Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is 61.87 per cent.
CAGR / Drawdown is 3.39
Instantaneously Compounding Annual Growth Rate (ICAGR) is 7.69 per cent.
Annually Compounding Annual Growth Rate (ACAGR) is 8.00 per cent.
Information Ratio is 0.22
Initial capital is $ 100000

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I suspect trading corn futures in a portfolio with a few other commodities might show overall lesser draw down.

If you want to learn to play piano,

<img src=http://www.victorholt.com/things/piano.jpg \img>

at some point you have to do it yourself.
 
Thanks for all the posts.

Recently I use the opening call of hightower report as a general brief guideline for each day. I often read something like "buy breaks" in this report. Can someone tell me what it means in grain trading? For example, in today's opening call, the author wrote "WHEAT: RAINS HIT AUSTRALIA ON WEEKEND AND IN FORECAST FOR EUROPE; BUY BREAKS"
Does it mean "buy break out of the range" or "buy weakness"?

- Clearpicks
 
Quote from clearpicks:

Thanks for all the posts.

Recently I use the opening call of hightower report as a general brief guideline for each day. I often read something like "buy breaks" in this report. Can someone tell me what it means in grain trading? For example, in today's opening call, the author wrote "WHEAT: RAINS HIT AUSTRALIA ON WEEKEND AND IN FORECAST FOR EUROPE; BUY BREAKS"
Does it mean "buy break out of the range" or "buy weakness"?

- Clearpicks
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Buy weakness.
 
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