Quote from Pabst:
You come across as someone either quite young or you have limited historical perspective. The saturation of ideas expressed on cable television and the internet intensifies each "crisis."
Only three Cat 5's have hit the U.S. in the last century. Often hurricanes reach Cat 5 status while out to sea only to mellow as they reach shore. These storms have ALWAYS been problematic for coastal residents. Just as river flooding (of which there's been a LULL) has been historically devastating for those who live on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. The difference is whereas pre-air conditioning relatively few people lived in cities like Houston, New Orleans, Tampa and Miami, those areas now have populations of millions. SoFla for example has been in a hurricane DROUGHT. If SoFla starts getting the frequency of storms they had in the 1930's there's going to be economic dickings to pay.
The recent relative proliferation has NOTHING to do with Brazilian rain forests or soccer moms driving SUV's any more than six heads in a row coming up in a Monte Carlo simulation means a sudden bias shift. I t happens. And it happens in trends. El Nino's are predictable and the water in the Atlantic is in a warm cycle.
As far as the market goes, what's the cause effect on future valuations. Sure some retailers ect. may have sluggish quarters because of all this (vis a vis the effects of oil prices) but does that allow me to extrapolate what CSCO's earnings in 2006 are going to be? Of course not. Get used to it. During your hopefully long career you're going to experience assassinations, sudden resignations, acts of terror, earthquakes in LA and Tokyo, weird flu strains, and yes, more hurricanes. Don't sweat it!
