Quote from detective:
We're just not there yet. Not even close to capitulation. A bump over 30 on the VIX in a entrenched bear market is not capitulation. In the media, I am hearing calls of a bottom, from guys like Barton Bigss and other guests on media outlets telling you to buy into bad news, from articles in finance websites to contrarians, who seem to be the majority these days on the web.
The market doesn't hand bottoms on a silver platter like that. It could happen next week only if we get very heavy selling, but Friday was definitely not it. Lots of volume, but not lots of panic. Need both for a good bottom.
Quote from detective:
Right, we just haven't gotten to levels where people are really disgusted and scared of putting money to work, it seems there are more people afraid of missing the rally back to higher levels. This is of course anectdotal evidence, just as the bulls use anectdotal contrarian evidence such as magazine covers about recession and credit crunch, etc, low bull - bear ratios, etc.
I mean we just had a 4% rally in one day this past week and then we go down 2% on Friday and that's supposed to be the bottom? People are not really scared yet, perhaps the scariest thing could be the market going down hard on no news.
Quote from riskfreetrading:
We are in bear market, and bear markets can last 2 years. From an investment point of view, I will not go long unless a new all time high is reached or the 2 years period has passed.
But the negativity in this thread and this forum says that we may be in a short term bottom. The market did not sell off on Friday. People see the losses and get scared. The market did not even break the low of the previous day for russell 2000 ETF! That is strength to me.
In addition I have not seen OTM call volalility this high. The market is clearly considering the upside seriously, and for the first time since we came from the top.
Quote from HedgefundTrader2:
You cannot scare investors when SPX is a weekly visitor to the lows around 1270 area. The fear factors is gone.
Quote from stock_trad3r:
No bear market unless the spooz closes below 1252. Subjective definitions of bear markets don't count. The media hasn't called it a bear market yet. There won't be a bear market either except the imaginary permabear created one.
Quote from stock_trad3r:
No bear market unless the spooz closes below 1252. Subjective definitions of bear markets don't count. The media hasn't called it a bear market yet. There won't be a bear market either except the imaginary permabear created one.
Quote from HedgefundTrader2:
I agree. Unless SPX closes below 1252 we have market correction. Unless we have 2 negative quarters of GDP there is no recession. Rest of it is speculation, fortune- telling, doom and gloom, and outright pessimist approach to life.
This constant meddling with doom and gloom is a by product of an unhealthy mind. It does nothing constructive.
Than on top of that people on this forum are constantly fighting the Feds! I mean what a bunch of yoo- yooos ! Who has won fighting the Feds?
Quote from xflat2186:
I agree for the most part, looking at volatility its not setting highs on each visit to the 1270 area. Which is just confirming what you said, in that people are not as neavous each trip there.