How to stop picking tops or bottoms

[expiated]

I work based on mathematical models, so I don't use any standard indicator, no s/r, no divergence, etc...But in fact a lot of indicators are based on mathematical models, as indicators are the graphical presentation of mathematical models...

The funny thing is that I am really not a genius in math, so having the right idea, or concept, seems to be more important than being a Phd in math or science.

Took me about 10 years to reach this point, and it was never my intention to built what I build. The outcome was the unintentional result of trying to make some money in trading by entering as close as possible to the optimal entrypoint to limit the losses. At the same time the signals had to be right most of the time as wrong signals would cost me a lot of money.

I agree. However, I DO use standard indicators, but not with standard settings. More specifically, I am interested in horizontal support and resistance, simple moving averages, and typical price ranges as defined by simple moving average envelopes.

However, I have no use for convergence/divergence, or the traditional chart patterns, candlestick formations, relative strength index, etc., mentioned by tomorton as not-very-helpful conventional tools for technical analysis. I agree with him in that respect. Really, what I am interested in is the overall market structure, or as schweiz put it...using indicators as the graphical presentation of mathematical models.

 

[expiated]

No, smart guys first copy/steal and then innovate. Saves them alot of work and might even give them new ideas they could not come up with themselves.

I have to concur once again. I copied Ray DeMedici, Nick McDonald, Stephen Whiteside, Scott Bartley, Jim Roof and AJ Monte, but was unwilling to do things exactly their way. I had to appropriate what I found useful and then synthesize it so that it made absolute sense to me and was 100% justifiable from my point of view.

 

[expiated]

And so my little experiment comes to an end, thus confirming the wisdom of resisting the temptation to trade aggressively, while at the same time validating the ultimate efficacy of my Numerical Price Prediction forecast model in picking tops and bottoms.

 

[expiated]

I am planning to enter long positions with respect to AUDJPY and/or USDJPY.

This SHOULD have said...

"I am planning to enter long positions with respect to AUDJPY and/or NZDJPY."

 

[Buy1Sell2]

If price is above the days open,then only look for longs.
If price is below the days open,then only look for shorts.
Im being serious BTW

FALSE

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Hi

Anybody have an exercise or method to stop trying to pick tops or bottoms in trading?

I've been selling into this rally like mad, convinced "this is the top" and haven't been able to stop.

Everyday it's the same thing, Im "convinced" the market can't go any higher and a correction is imminent, only to get squeezed.

How can I stop doing this?
J

You can't. All trading strategies involve picking tops and bottoms.

 

[murray t turtle]

If you already know the problem and can't do anything about it, the only solution is to keep doing what you're doing until it becomes to painful to lose anymore money.

%%
That can work real well; + take good notes or print charts, since patterns may repeat.I thought SEPT would sell off more also.LOL But i dont try to call tops or bottoms; to painful for me. A little bit of time can confirm.