How to know when to really get out of US Bonds...

[TheDudeofLife]

http://biz.yahoo.com/t/48/5911.html


It looks like Bill G was getting real long in 2005..He stopped buying in Dec..If he starts selling Will it be time to get short bonds.? Look at what the insiders of the Homebuilder stocks were doing last year...

 

[rosy2]

pimco has been saying rates are going down for a long time. if anything, when bill g starts selling bonds I would start buying

 

[Hook N. Sinker]

You do not write if you are interested in long term or short term but I assume if you refer to year 2005 that your interest is long term.

The monthly futures chart of US 30 year treasury bonds shows price deceasing to less that the values of a long term trend line. I suspect lower bond prices (higher inflation values and higher interest rates) may follow.

The chart is attached.

 

[Bitstream]

that chart looks to me in an uptrend since 00.

 

[KS96]

Quote from Bitstream:

that chart looks to me in an uptrend since 00.

Definitely. So far so good.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from Bitstream:

that chart looks to me in an uptrend since 00.

That chart's wrong! Bad data! (MOST monthly charts of Bond futs have erroneous prices. The coupon changed from 8% to 6% in 1998)

 

[Bitstream]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

That chart's wrong! Bad data! (MOST monthly charts of Bond futs have erroneous prices. The coupon changed from 8% to 6% in 1998)

hmm...u got a good chart to show us?

 

[rosy2]

here's thirty yr bond index (TYX) since 2005

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=TYX&sid=0&o_symb=TYX&freq=1&time=9

 

[Hook N. Sinker]

TYX is a yield index. Yield curves are inverted compared to the bond price curve. The yeild curve does show yield rising above the downtrend line of 6 years, since year 2000. Rising yield = falling bond price.