I don't regularly follow the OEX options, but it is my understanding the the dynamics/market/trend are not too different than the SPX options (or cash Euro CBOE options) . I recently read a piece of research from GS that was focused on US derivative markets. Surprisingly, SPX options trading showed a substantial peak in '96-97 (by dollar volume) plateaued, but have recently drifted up. Really, within the derivative markets, the primary losers of dollar volume the past few years have been the pit SPs (which obviously doesn't directly hurt the CBOE) to the E-mini, which posters here know so well. Acutally, the mini and the SPX CBOE options showed a similar level of dollar volume in '02 (if I remember correctly).
My non-quantified/non-verified opinion has been that while the CBOE has suffered from the proliferation of other index exposure vehicles (SPYs, E-minis), they have suffered considerable more from the growth in volume in the ISE in individual stock options. Further, to say that SPYs and other index securities spell the demise of the CBOE seems a bit naive. What exactly are SP futures? When did they start trading?
I further believe this has been a catalyst for the "OneChicago project."
****Begin Edit****
If you are transacting at the quoted spread, YES you will soon be "toasted." Plenty of private market makers can be had.....SUSQ often makes $1 wide private markets in the SPX, plus improvement if the market provides such....
****End Edit****