You wrote...two signs of heightened/elevated levels of commitment to the daily trend include: (1) the counter-trend side of the 30-minute price range envelope at 0.19% deviation outpacing the counter-trend side of the four-hour price flow channel at 0.10% deviation, and (2) the leading band of the four-hour price range envelope at 0.45% deviation outstripping the leading band of the 6½-hour price range envelope at 0.50% deviation for longer than half a day, which is to say, 12 hours).
Yet, a cursory glance at certain hourly charts recommends radical offshoots from the 6½-hour baseline as harbingers of possible pending reversals, but at what levels? This is difficult to determine because of how much the 6½-hour measure fluctuates. However, a fresh look at the situation finds that the more stable 12-hour price flow channel at 0.20% deviation serves as a much better benchmark for defining these very same levels.
Other points stemming from this fresh look are...
The "global" trajectory of price is best conveyed by the 12- and four-day price flows, but practically speaking, these two measures are neither here nor there, because it might be days-and-days before rates finally get around to coming back under the influence of even four-day momentum, and it can take as long as two weeks, if not longer, before it becomes apparent that there has been a reversal in the four-day trend.
So then really, you're referring to the 1-, 1½- and 2-day baselines as road signs for where rates are ultimately headed. But then again, it can take up to three days, if not longer, for price to get back on track even here. Therefore, practically speaking, it's actually the 12-hour price flow channel at 0.20% deviation which is the basic framework on which everything else should be constructed.
During periods like that from February 22nd to February 31st, the 12-hour channel is going to be virtually flat, with price transitioning back and forth above and bellow the measure (and possibly beyond to the 0.50% deviation level of the 6½-hour price range envelope).
When rates ebb and flow every two or three days, but essentially go nowhere overall (as has been doing ever since February 5th), the 12-hour channel will be lagging. So, to gauge when price is beginning to really move, look for the counter-trend side of the two-hour price range envelope at 0.17% deviation to clear the 6½-hour baseline. The other baselines you need to monitor in this context (before you drill down to the 30-, 5- and 3-minute measures) are the one- and 3½-hour moving averages.
Also, if the upper or lower band of the 12-hour channel remains perfectly aligned with the slope of the 6½-hour baseline while price pulls back to the contrary side of the two-hour price range envelope, it’s possible that you could be looking at a potentially profitable trade setup.
(Combine these measures and those from Post #40 on one chart.)
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