Here’s How Much Money You’ve Lost If You Took Matt Damon’s Crypto Advice One Year Ago

[Frederick Foresight]

What probability do you give that it doesn't "go out" at all, it just keeps marching higher (with the standard -80% drawdown every couple of years, that it eventually recovers from). This is a genuine question.

I'm not well-versed in the area to answer that question. And even if I were, assigning a numeric probability would be arbitrary. (That's what calculators are for: multiplying two seat-of-the-pants estimates and getting accuracy to the 6th decimal point.) But as an uninformed outsider who sees hot air rising, I'm inclined to believe it will cool and think that the balance of probability is not in its favor. Just my hunch.

 

[GlobalMacro90]

I'm not well-versed in the area to answer that question. And even if I were, assigning a numeric probability would be arbitrary. (That's what calculators are for: multiplying two seat-of-the-pants estimates and getting accuracy to the 6th decimal point.) But as an uninformed outsider who sees hot air rising, I'm inclined to believe it will cool and think that the balance of probability is not in its favor. Just my hunch.

Fair enough, thanks for the reply.

 

[Frederick Foresight]