Get Ready to Short a Gold Stock!

"The fair value for Gold might be the low 400's but it could easily over shoot down to 250. "

by what valuation metric?

im a contrarian too. that's why i started accumulating gold several years ago, before i even knew what stock trading was.

but i'd like to know what u use to say the fair value is in low 400's

every valuation metric i have says that gold is still very undervalued.

and gold stocks moreso

i love silver too.

i have been bullish on metals in general for several years, not just gold. silver rools
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Besides, I don't see inflation being the driving risk going forward, I see deflation as the real risk.
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the reinflationary and deflationary risks to the us economy both threaten confidence in paper currency

the only major deflationary slump in modern history as far as i know (japan 1996) sent the price of gold much higher
 
Quote from Avid_Consumer:

the reinflationary and especially deflationary risks to the us economy both threaten confidence in paper currency

the only major deflationary slump in modern history as far as i know (japan 1996) sent the price of gold much higher
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AC, you are not listening. The expansion of the Chinese economy is going to bring stability to the world economy, not instability. Instability is what drives GOLD higher, not the inverse.

The US historically was always the leader in economic growth and financial stability. We are in a global economy now. We are no longer the force that has to hold the weight of the world on our shoulders. I view this as a good thing, not a bad thing.
 
Someone take the contents of this thread and place it in the one questioning whether trading is a zero-sum game or not.

I make most of my money fading. And while I don't trade commodities, if I did, I'd be looking to get short gold at every turn.

I'd also be getting out when it looked like the dips were being bought. So, here you have it - I can make money fading short-term spikes, while all the trend followers get back in when I'm exiting.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

AC, you are not listening. The expansion of the Chinese economy is going to bring stability to the world economy, not de-stability. De-stability is what drives GOLD higher, not the inverse.

The US historically was always the leader in economic growth and financial stability. We are in a global economy now. We are no longer the force that has to hold the weight of the world on our shoulders. I view this as a good thing, not a bad thing.
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I believe you mean "instability"
 
Quote from whitster:

in my longer term investments (totally different from trades fwiw), i kind of like a contrarian philosophy, combined with a regression to the mean philosophy.
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What was the basis for your HANS investment? That wouldnt be a contrarian, mean-reversion thing. Or was it a trade? I'm wondering what you did to catch that move since I keep kicking myself for missing it.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

AC, you are not listening. The expansion of the Chinese economy is going to bring stability to the world economy, not de-stability. De-stability is what drives GOLD higher, not the inverse.

The US historically was always the leader in economic growth and financial stability. We are in a global economy now. We are no longer the force that has to hold the weight of the world on our shoulders. I view this as a good thing, not a bad thing.
More...

it sounds like you envision an orderly transition from the us dollar to the chinese yuan as world reserve money. i'll take the other side of that
 
i bot HANS on rock solid fundamentals

it has/had a growing segment of a growing industry

i questioned a surf team promoter, a BMX show promoter, several pro surfer friends of mine, and a bunch of store managers

i also started to see a lot of Monsters being drunk around town

and soccer moms loading up HANSen naturals @ costco

basically, a peter Lynch approach

i sold the last of my HANS today in the 120's which is a nice 100 pt gain

HANS was MOSTLY a fundamentals play, not a chart play fwiw

surfers tend to be a leading indicator i have found fwiw
 
My gut tells me you're a paper trader.

Quote from whitster:

i bot HANS on rock solid fundamentals

it has/had a growing segment of a growing industry

i questioned a surf team promoter, a BMX show promoter, several pro surfer friends of mine, and a bunch of store managers

i also started to see a lot of Monsters being drunk around town

and soccer moms loading up HANSen naturals @ costco

basically, a peter Lynch approach

i sold the last of my HANS today in the 120's which is a nice 100 pt gain

HANS was MOSTLY a fundamentals play, not a chart play fwiw

surfers tend to be a leading indicator i have found fwiw
More...
 
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