Here's my take on Mr. Yanhui's 970.43% gain in the $25,000 trading contest on FXCM.
Now I may be completely wrong on how the contest was won, and I really hope I am, but we can use game theory to prove that his 970% gain was not really that impressive considering the stakes given by FXCM. I think I can do better.
The Contest
The rules state you must begin the month with $500USD in your account. In microlot forex, one lot is $1000, so the EURUSD is $0.10 per pip. FXCM allows 100:1 leverage.
Let's say that I have $8000 to allocate to this strategy. I open 16 accounts, each with the required $500. You'll see why in a minute.
The Strategy
On the first day of the contest, in 8 of my accounts I go full long the Euro, maxing out my leverage by taking 50 microlots in each account. In the other 8 accounts I go full short Euro, selling 50 microlots in each. 50 lots x $0.10 per pip = $5.00 per pip. I will double or blow out the account after the Euro moves 100 pips.
I wait until it makes that 100 pip move, then immediately reverse my position in half of my remaining accounts. I do this 3 more times, and I am left with one account, with a balance of $8000. Here's the breakdown:
day 0
16 accounts, $500 each
end of 1st 100 pip move
8 accounts, $1000 each
end of 2nd 100 pip move
4 accounts, $2000 each
end of 3rd 100 pip move
2 accounts, $4000 each
end of 4th 100 pip move
1 account, $8000
The Payoff
Because I started that final remaining account with $500, and I end the month with $8000, that's a 1500% increase. I understand we lose a little on each trade due to the spread, FXCM reports that a typical spread for the EURUSD is 2.3, so let's round that up to 3 pips. We would have lost 3 pips on each of 4 moves, so our actual ending balance will be about $6800. That's still a 1260% increase, far enough to win the contest.
We lost just over a grand to the spread, but winning the contest nets us $25k. That takes the sting out of it. And next month, if you don't think that 1260% is going to win, just start with twice as much capital funding twice as many accounts and do just one more trade to double your return to ~2500%.
The Rub
Beware, the spread has gobbled up the prize money by the time you're funding 256 accounts with a total of $128,000 and 8 double-or-nothing trades. You will however be able to book a nice 19,000% return if you can get the Euro to move a combined 800 pips for you.
I will be happy to answer any questions if you would like to put this strategy into practice. But I'm certainly not going to risk my own capital.
Now I may be completely wrong on how the contest was won, and I really hope I am, but we can use game theory to prove that his 970% gain was not really that impressive considering the stakes given by FXCM. I think I can do better.
The Contest
The rules state you must begin the month with $500USD in your account. In microlot forex, one lot is $1000, so the EURUSD is $0.10 per pip. FXCM allows 100:1 leverage.
Let's say that I have $8000 to allocate to this strategy. I open 16 accounts, each with the required $500. You'll see why in a minute.
The Strategy
On the first day of the contest, in 8 of my accounts I go full long the Euro, maxing out my leverage by taking 50 microlots in each account. In the other 8 accounts I go full short Euro, selling 50 microlots in each. 50 lots x $0.10 per pip = $5.00 per pip. I will double or blow out the account after the Euro moves 100 pips.
I wait until it makes that 100 pip move, then immediately reverse my position in half of my remaining accounts. I do this 3 more times, and I am left with one account, with a balance of $8000. Here's the breakdown:
day 0
16 accounts, $500 each
end of 1st 100 pip move
8 accounts, $1000 each
end of 2nd 100 pip move
4 accounts, $2000 each
end of 3rd 100 pip move
2 accounts, $4000 each
end of 4th 100 pip move
1 account, $8000
The Payoff
Because I started that final remaining account with $500, and I end the month with $8000, that's a 1500% increase. I understand we lose a little on each trade due to the spread, FXCM reports that a typical spread for the EURUSD is 2.3, so let's round that up to 3 pips. We would have lost 3 pips on each of 4 moves, so our actual ending balance will be about $6800. That's still a 1260% increase, far enough to win the contest.
We lost just over a grand to the spread, but winning the contest nets us $25k. That takes the sting out of it. And next month, if you don't think that 1260% is going to win, just start with twice as much capital funding twice as many accounts and do just one more trade to double your return to ~2500%.
The Rub
Beware, the spread has gobbled up the prize money by the time you're funding 256 accounts with a total of $128,000 and 8 double-or-nothing trades. You will however be able to book a nice 19,000% return if you can get the Euro to move a combined 800 pips for you.
I will be happy to answer any questions if you would like to put this strategy into practice. But I'm certainly not going to risk my own capital.
