So I believe XMSR will beat 4th Qtr expectations by a large amount, and thus I will go long.
Fundamentals (can you check/argue these for me?):
[all numbers are in thousands, except EPS or otherwise noted]
4th Qtr EPS estimate: -0.89
Shares Outstanding: 222.21M
Thus, XMSR is expected to have net income of ($197,767) in 4th Qtr.
Looking at the ttm income statement numbers, I can give these rather conservative (more expenses than predicted) numbers:
Gross Profit: ~$50,000...this is assuming no growth over last qtr.
R+D: <= $10,000
SGA: ~ $120,000
Others: ~ $40,000... based on previous stable figures
Interest Expense: ~ $27,000
Income Tax: =579
Preferred Stock Adjustments: = ($2,149)
Add them all together (G.P. minus expenses) and I expect only about a loss of $150,000, or -0.67 per share. (0.67) compared to (0.89) is quite a large difference (earnings surprise of about 25%) and I expect a decent profit can be made. Keep in mind that there is little/no growth in these estimates and expenses are on the heavy side.
Anyone agree? Disagree? My biggest concern is when to enter? now or very close to announcement?
Fundamentals (can you check/argue these for me?):
[all numbers are in thousands, except EPS or otherwise noted]
4th Qtr EPS estimate: -0.89
Shares Outstanding: 222.21M
Thus, XMSR is expected to have net income of ($197,767) in 4th Qtr.
Looking at the ttm income statement numbers, I can give these rather conservative (more expenses than predicted) numbers:
Gross Profit: ~$50,000...this is assuming no growth over last qtr.
R+D: <= $10,000
SGA: ~ $120,000
Others: ~ $40,000... based on previous stable figures
Interest Expense: ~ $27,000
Income Tax: =579
Preferred Stock Adjustments: = ($2,149)
Add them all together (G.P. minus expenses) and I expect only about a loss of $150,000, or -0.67 per share. (0.67) compared to (0.89) is quite a large difference (earnings surprise of about 25%) and I expect a decent profit can be made. Keep in mind that there is little/no growth in these estimates and expenses are on the heavy side.
Anyone agree? Disagree? My biggest concern is when to enter? now or very close to announcement?