Would anyone like to discuss strategies for forming an outlook on the near-term future of the yield curve? There is so much good information on how to set up futures spreads and butterflies to act on a view about where yields are going relative to one another, and even more on the predictive use of the yield curve to forecast recessions. But what about forecasting the yield-curve itself? I would think there would be regular discussions about change in yields for purposes of day and swing trading the curve, much as there is for grains, metals, indices, etc.
Where do you turn for commentary on whether we're likely to seeing flattening or steepening tomorrow? (No one can prognosticate, of course, but it's nice to hear arguments.)
Besides advisory services, what general principles serve as a guide for forecasting near-term changes in the curve?
For my part (for what it's worth), I treat spreads like any other instrument and take signals from my ichimoku system (which is another topic). The only difference between this market and others being, for me, the propensity towards mean-reversion. I am more ready to call near-term tops and bottoms in the TUF or NOB spreads than the TF or NQ outrights.
I also trade butterflies by buying the relatively strong spread and shorting the weaker one. I don't have a rigorous system worked out, but have been generally quick to book both losses and profits. I don't think the spread market in yields is particularly trendy, so think of these trades as just that.
None of the foregoing is offered as advice, but only to contribute something considering, that I'm seeking information from others.
Happy trading
Where do you turn for commentary on whether we're likely to seeing flattening or steepening tomorrow? (No one can prognosticate, of course, but it's nice to hear arguments.)
Besides advisory services, what general principles serve as a guide for forecasting near-term changes in the curve?
For my part (for what it's worth), I treat spreads like any other instrument and take signals from my ichimoku system (which is another topic). The only difference between this market and others being, for me, the propensity towards mean-reversion. I am more ready to call near-term tops and bottoms in the TUF or NOB spreads than the TF or NQ outrights.
I also trade butterflies by buying the relatively strong spread and shorting the weaker one. I don't have a rigorous system worked out, but have been generally quick to book both losses and profits. I don't think the spread market in yields is particularly trendy, so think of these trades as just that.
None of the foregoing is offered as advice, but only to contribute something considering, that I'm seeking information from others.
Happy trading
