FOMC - Jan 30/31, 2024 - Rate Decision Poll

[kmiklas]

This is a big one... it will set the tone for the 2024 election year in the USA.

Whaddya all think? <3 Keith

 

[SunTrader]

Going with CME FedWatchTool which says, currently, 93.3% probs status quo. And the chance of unch has been going higher the closer we get to Jan 31st.

But IMO not much effect on election one way or the other though in this wacky, screwed up world who knows.

 

[kmiklas]

Going with CME FedWatchTool which says, currently, 93.3% probs status quo. And the chance of unch has been going higher the closer we get to Jan 31st.

But IMO not much effect on election one way or the other though in this wacky, screwed up world who knows.

Thanks for this... I didn't know about the CME tool.

I feel like something wacky is going to happen... that we'll be blindsided by something else on the scale of COVID.

 

[Specterx]

Highly likely unch. The market will be looking for more enthusiasm re: the pivot from the FOMC to catalyze another risk-on surge. That's going to be a tall order absent a sudden economic shock. My feeling is that most markets (rates, PMs, currencies and equities) will be rangebound for 2-6 months and 2024 could be a pretty boring year, at least by recent standards.

 

[David's faith]

Highly likely unch. The market will be looking for more enthusiasm re: the pivot from the FOMC to catalyze another risk-on surge. That's going to be a tall order absent a sudden economic shock. My feeling is that most markets (rates, PMs, currencies and equities) will be rangebound for 2-6 months and 2024 could be a pretty boring year, at least by recent standards.

I say sideways to slightly down but lots of volatility. Priced in are 7(!) cuts, that will not happen unless there is a shock. If there is no shock, the correction will be a big one anyways.

 

[SunTrader]

CME FEDWatch is now 95.3% no change Jan 31.