FCOJ

I

illiquid

Just curious if anyone has experience trading OJ on a longer-term basis, looks like it just cracked a multi-year low.

I remember when I was little my mom would buy 4 half-gallon containers every few weeks or so and we'd drink it like water; nowadays I barely touch the stuff. Interested to hear a discussion on what the major fundamentals are for this contract.
 
I believe that there are NAFTA style trade negotiations going on between the US and Central/South America. If Tariffs get lifted on Brazilian OJ, Florida Orange growers are going to be hurting.
 
I traded juice years ago (late 80's early 90's). Very thin and hairy market. Long term may be OK, but be sure to use limit orders getting in, and the slippage on a stop getting out can be amazing. Its one of the few markets that I swore off for good after getting absolutely screwed on a fill that took 15 minutes!

Jay
 
Hi illiquid. In 3 weeks I'll let you know. I will be in the NYBOT trading oj and cotton. They seem to do ok size 5k-8k contracts daily. Fun facts about OJ are- Brazil and florida produce > 50% of oranges. Due to Atkins diet no one drinks it at the same rate 3 years ago. There are about 5 locals in the pit so it is not as liquid as other pits. So for off floor, you really need to trade it on a swing basis.
 
One more thing, these commodities tend to run in cycles. Old addage is that nothing cures low prices like low prices and vice versa. Check out open interest Commitment of traders to see if commercials are getting short,etc. Be careful shorting it at these levels though, 2-3 days of sub 60 temps in FLA, watch out !Can u say limit up!
 
Yeah those limit down days in cattle make me think twice about getting into any "edible" markets :)

Good luck at the NYBOT!
 
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