Quote from Trend Fader:
I completely disagree.... i think the US is not that bad as you make it..
US is great now.
I never said it is not great now.
Market is just that - two opposite opinions and funds transfer.-))
If anything this will reflect more in the stock market .. but the US economy and financial situation is not much worse than say that of Japan, UK, and even Canada...
True. But did I say the US is worse than Japan? Where?
And what is the definition of being a 'better' country?
Stronger currency?
just imagine what would happen to mighty canadian dollar if oil went back to under $50 in the next 1-2 years.
Is it going under? When???
Well, if the crude has to go under - then US demand for crude must go down as well. Therefore FIRST US then SECOND - Canada. Right?
The UK already has an inverted/humped yield curve.. the curve in NZ has been inverted for almost a year.. Australia curve looks pretty bad too... the curve on EU doesn't look to great either.. again... you are making a good case to weakening stock market and asset prices.. weaker economic growth.. but not necessarily a plunging US dollar.
hmmm. TRUE AGAIN. This makes me wonder - what is 'pulling' them out of depression? US?
Isn't it? US is considerably larger economy in terms of GDP.
I'd say - the cycle of growth depends on the largest component.
Therefore the depression starts when the largest component drops into recession.
Right?
The yield inversion is not a good signal for the UK - but is is a huge signal for the US.
What works for US - doesn't necessarily work for an other, smaller state.
One fact is that next year the US is estimated to have the highest real gdp growth out of all g-8 countries.. thats not hallmark of a plunging currency...
It is absolutely correct.
There are some predictions of GDP growth here.
Suppose the US GDP growth figure slumps down to 1.5%. The rest of the world will contract. So you are right.
It should be better than the rest of the world.
