El-Erian: Brace for 'violent' shocks

[Zwaen]

Consumer price inflation is bull shit, always been obvious to me that real inflation shows up in asset price inflation. To see house prices, stocks, gold prices.. all rocket 600% over the last 25 years but be told official inflation was only 100% over the same time.

All the CPI nonsense is just deflection and gaslighting. They tell us to just ignore asset price inflation and be happy because the price of eggs is not going
..

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/common-misconceptions-about-cpi.htm

See point 2. Rentals are included

 

[VicBee]

How woud you model unknown variables?

You don't need the unknown, the known will be enough to provide detailed projections. We all independently analyse a sliver of information to help us make decisions we believe are "informed". The big boys have a great deal more analysis power than most of us combined. But an AI plugged in a quantum computer will make the big boys as clueless as we are in front of our multi screens pc.

 

[nitrene]

I guess buying MBS in a booming real estate market wasn't a good idea after all?

My favorite idiocy from the Fed was buying Apple bonds in the heart of the pandemic. Yes I'm sure a monopoly like Apple needs charity from the Fed to survive.

From Greenspan to Powell just a bunch of Ivy League lounge lizards.

 

[murray t turtle]

Don't you ever take the time to understand what others have written? Some actually take their time thinking about it before writing.

That said, I explicitly mentioned that my gripe with El-Erian and other economists is that they wait too damn long to make their calls. By then, it's become obvious even to lay people. In another word, their prediction is so obvious as to be unimportant.

%%
HOW did you KNOW;
i type slow??
But I have NO MO\
on my charts.
I try not to use much ''psycho-babble'' or pretend to predict like Mo did.
Actually i see a lot of prices transitory, gasoline \ new cars\LOL, some sectors in stock market............
Except for sunrise\sunset\
MO \
does not know\
the first thing about 2023/LOL

 

[schizo]

%%
HOW did you KNOW;
i type slow??
But I have NO MO\
on my charts.
I try not to use much ''psycho-babble'' or pretend to predict like Mo did.
Actually i see a lot of prices transitory, gasoline \ new cars\LOL, some sectors in stock market............
Except for sunrise\sunset\
MO \
does not know\
the first thing about 2023/LOL

Everything is going to be okay, so just relax. Half the time, I have no idea what you're saying but that's okay too. We just need to give out good vibes. That's all.

 

[Overnight]

Everything is going to be okay, so just relax. Half the time, I have no idea what you're saying but that's okay too. We just need to give out good vibes. That's all.

That's easy...

 

[Real Money]

I guess buying MBS in a booming real estate market wasn't a good idea after all?

My favorite idiocy from the Fed was buying Apple bonds in the heart of the pandemic. Yes I'm sure a monopoly like Apple needs charity from the Fed to survive.

From Greenspan to Powell just a bunch of Ivy League lounge lizards.

Don't worry, you can get 'super jumbo' loans now.

Fed agency to the rescue. Bubblenomics...

Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will raise the limits of government-backed loans to a record level for 2023, with the maximum loan limit hitting more than $1 million for high-cost areas, the Federal Housing Finance Agency announced Tuesday.​

Mortgage giants raise loan limits to a record level for 2023
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/29/homes/fannie-and-freddie-loan-limits-announcement-2023

 

[piezoe]

If I may translate. I interpret El-Erian as saying, "The coming recession may be more extended than previously thought." Supply problems will depend heavily on the war in Ukraine and the Chinese Economy. These two factors contribute most of the time uncertainty.

 

[murray t turtle]

Everything is going to be okay, so just relax. Half the time, I have no idea what you're saying but that's okay too. We just need to give out good vibes. That's all.

%%
LOL.
I dont really understand 50% [half] a pattern much.
But i have used it anyway.
I do understand Mo can't predict.

 

[peechu]

This fool was part of the 2009-2010 psyop that America can no longer grow rapidly, the New Normal they called it.

Yes.

[Dec 13, 2021] El-Erian says the Fed made the worst policy mistake in the history...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/13/el-...inflation-call-in-the-history-of-the-fed.html

“The characterization of inflation as transitory is probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve, and it results in a high probability of a policy mistake,” the former Pimco CEO and current Queens’ College president said Sunday on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”
​

and

“If they catch up now, if they’re honest about their mistake and take steps now, they can still regain control of it,” he said.​

What he is saying here, is that the Fed made a grave error (they should be in front of inflation) and they are going to be late, very late, if they are wrong on this call (no more hot CPI prints)

He is warning that they will be forced to flip, have to move from the Fed's most accommodative policy in history, and be forced to embark on a very aggressive series of rate hikes.

A policy mistake means they have become part of the problem, and are about to really fuck up (markets AND the economy). He was right from this call on, and if you had followed his advice and gone to cash...
View attachment 300293

The whole justification for QE was that "inflation remains stubbornly low" and other such nonsense (minority unemployment rate targeting, etc.)