- Market pricing for both start of rate cuts and totality of cuts in 2024 is excessive
- Recent accommodation priced into rates is inconsistent with policy stance to get inflation back to target
- Inflation will rebound in 1H 2024 and ECB should only reassess policy outlook after this period
- Wage formation in Q1 2024 will be crucial for policy outlook
The "excessive" language couldn´t be more clear, right? We are collecting some STIR Q1/2024 option premiums as we smell that some hedge funds and Tier1 desk will happily hand over their funds to us!
Nothing more nasty than time decay....! 