Don't Fight the Fed - Bearish pressure continues
- Thread starter KCalhoun
- Start date
i think we will. Fed is known to take rates much higher than anyone can envision. 30 year fixed already 5%, few months back it was 2.75. And Fed has not even began real tightening.
March 2020 lows are definitely coming, no doubt about it. Fed should have been raising rates years ago but instead they waited and waited and waited, add to the mix trillions in printing and of course inflation is going come.
Wait until housing market collapses, with the 30 year fixed rising now housing prices will pull back substantially. Funny thing is all these dummies buying houses the last 2 years and waiting in lines with hundreds of people to view a house with nothing but all cash offers and bidding wars are now going to look back and say, yep we should have waited. The only thing they have is the lower interest rate they locked in at 3% , but over all the drop in housing prices will be a substantial fall back for most who chased those markets the last 2 year. Housing prices will fall easily 20%+ along with a deep recession as the fed raises rates too fast trying to situate the "TRANSITORY" inflation they were not worried about the last 12 months. Thank the fed for the economic woes we will be facing the next few years ahead!!!
Wait until housing market collapses, with the 30 year fixed rising now housing prices will pull back substantially. Funny thing is all these dummies buying houses the last 2 years and waiting in lines with hundreds of people to view a house with nothing but all cash offers and bidding wars are now going to look back and say, yep we should have waited. The only thing they have is the lower interest rate they locked in at 3% , but over all the drop in housing prices will be a substantial fall back for most who chased those markets the last 2 year. Housing prices will fall easily 20%+ along with a deep recession as the fed raises rates too fast trying to situate the "TRANSITORY" inflation they were not worried about the last 12 months. Thank the fed for the economic woes we will be facing the next few years ahead!!!
You think the QQQ is going to drop to 167? Seems unlikely to me. I could see the pre-2020 March highs of 237 which is about a 35% drop from here. Seems unlikely for Apple to drop 50% although it is expensive at 22 times EBITDA right now. I agree that a lot of the non-FAANG in the QQQ are very expensive like Accenture which has a 33 P/E and 22 times EBITDA and that's after falling 22%.
I think the nature of the housing bubble is quite different than 2007. Seems to be under development as opposed to over development of housing. In the SF bay area where I live there is virtually no new development any more so students or new workers here just share small dwellings amongst themselves because no one can afford the crazy prices here.
I'm sure there are a certain percentage of people overbidding on houses here that do rely on mortgages and they will be in trouble if the rates continue to rise which seems inevitable.
One thing for certain is that these skyrocketing housing prices in California are going to lead even higher rents especially if the prices drop and the owners aren't going to sell. So ultimately it will lead even more owner equivalent rent hikes down the road. Which means an even higher CPI.
I think the nature of the housing bubble is quite different than 2007. Seems to be under development as opposed to over development of housing. In the SF bay area where I live there is virtually no new development any more so students or new workers here just share small dwellings amongst themselves because no one can afford the crazy prices here.
I'm sure there are a certain percentage of people overbidding on houses here that do rely on mortgages and they will be in trouble if the rates continue to rise which seems inevitable.
One thing for certain is that these skyrocketing housing prices in California are going to lead even higher rents especially if the prices drop and the owners aren't going to sell. So ultimately it will lead even more owner equivalent rent hikes down the road. Which means an even higher CPI.
I am hopeful of that test.
Transports typically lead the market and you can see where DJT has topped, or is topping.
I don't know anyone is dumb enough to believe this is going to be rolled back in any meaningful way
Did you fade this thread ? Lot of money to be made long the last two days.
All our trades are done by our algos. We only trade futures.