deriving probability of rate hikes from Fed funds futures

K

Kicking

I 'd rather use a website with graphs that spare me the calculation ... where can you find that info ?
and what is the current probability of a hike on 09/20?
 
Rick santoli (CNBC CBOT reporter) said yesterday that it was virtually %100. However he did mention that option trading activity was suggesting that major players are hedging there bets in case the fed doesn't co-operate.
 
I am looking for charts such as the one shown by Ron Insana on CNBC this afternoon. The charts were from Bianco Research but it's available only on subscription apparently
 
Quote from landboy:

I thought this was how you calculate chance of fed raising, Let's assuming 96.28

(3.72-3.5)/(0.25) =

88%...

Please correct me if i'm wrong...
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I just reworked the numbers and came to your conclusion. Another way to think about is that each tick is worth four percentage points of probability.
 
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