Definitions of peak oil

Pekelo

Pekelo

Before people start to argue about a topic it is a good idea to agree on certain definitions, just to ensure both parties are talking about the same thingy.

When we have discussed peak oil in the past here on ET, beside ignorance I noticed that several times we meant something or other by peak oil. So since it is a rainy afternoon, I thought I would give 3 different definitions just to get the ball rolling:

1. Absolute crude world output, measured in million barrels a day. Currently it is around 85 mill barrels a day. It is my and some experts' estimates that we are close to the max. capacity and it can be stretched only by a few millions. We should reach that maximum in the next 1-3 years. My bet that it will never exceed 90 million barrels, which is not so good, compared that world demand estimates for 2025 is over 110 mill or even more.

2. Relative crude oil output per person. Meaning the world's output divided by the number of humans (possible users). I bet you didn't know that we passed the peak according to this definition back in 1979!!

3. Comparison between the rates of growth of supply and demand. Thus once demand grows with a faster rate than supply, we have peak oil. Yes, you guessed it right, we passed it last year!! Last year was the first year in oil's history when demand grew with a faster pace than supply.

So out of these 3 definitions by 2 we have passed peak oil. This doesn't mean the price of oil will skyrocket tomorrow, but you might want to ask for a comfortable bicycle for Christmas....
 
good topic for a rainy day.

I think that all points 1-3 encompass the whole definition. Many articles and posts describe it like a bell curve, where supply=demand is at the very top. So it is very easy to say that if we produce 85m barrels/day and we consume 90m barrels/day, we have reached and crossed peak oil.

But it is just not that black & white.
To answer the question "Are we at peak oil?" is very subjective.

I think that the world would have to show that demand will consistently outpace supply. With the rate at which Asia is currently growing, this is probably not too difficult. But you also have to consider possible technological advances. There are just so many other factors that need to be considered.

My short answer for "Are we at peak oil?" is...No.
The markets will tell us when that happens.
 
Quote from mojodawg:

if we produce 85m barrels/day and we consume 90m barrels/day, we have reached and crossed peak oil.

Obviously, we can not consume more than what is produced. But beside that there is very little extra capacity left right now...


To answer the question "Are we at peak oil?" is very subjective.

Not really, if we agreed on the definition. Now we can answer it according to 3 different definitions, nevertheless the answers to each is rather objective.

I think that the world would have to show that demand will consistently outpace supply.

This is a good point. Unfortunatelly the way how humans keep breeding and former non-users become big users of oil, there is nothing to make us think otherwise.

But you also have to consider possible technological advances.

I gladly would if there was anything in the horizont. Right now petroleum based products have no serious competitor...

My short answer for "Are we at peak oil?" is...No.


According to which definition? :)

Now the top of the bell curve is not going to be 1 day or 1 week, but a rather long period of 2-5 years, could be even more, if we counting for technological advantages. But once we are not seeing the daily barrel production going above 90 mill, we can have a clue...
 
peak oil: the top of the normal distribution that defines world oil production. if that begins to slope downward then we've reached peak oil.

IMO were nowhere near peak oil. THeres still the tar sands of canada
 
All good definitions, but i would define it as the point where only maybe 30% of the driving/working population can afford to commute, at all, and car manufacturers close up shop by the basketfull.

Where your tradesman looks into a moped with a trailer, not a f-150.
When fast food joints keep their waste fry oil in a bunker;

When ferrari has an all electric lineup...........you get the picture.
Long way off...maybe, but still inevitable.
 
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