Sold the AAPL @ 51.28 -- I'll look to re-enter. See Nichols last 2 days comments below - cowpok
By David Nichols
October 12, 2005
I'm looking for another move lower, with the SPX dumping down to 1175, or perhaps if it gets emotional down to 1170. This move down looks set to happen sometime soon, either this week or next. In my opinion this will be a buying opportunity -- and a potentially excellent one. If the SPX does fall down to there, it's not going to feel too appetizing to step in and buy at that point. The way I handle that is to do a small position, and then add once the thesis gains more credibility. The risk can then be well-contained if the idea is wrong.
I want to buy such a down move to this 1175 area, as often markets like to move down to the spot of the original breakout before embarking on the last leg up. In this current fractal, 1178 was the spot of the original upside breakout back in May.
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October 13, 2005
As far as this decline, it's time to ask the age-old back-seat-of-the-car question: "Are we there yet?"
This looks to me like a classic bottom at 1175, which has been my lower target since 1227, which is over 50 points higher. I have 3 separate fractal projections for a low right in this 1175 zone, which gives me confidence in this forecast for a bottom.
If prices simply blow through this area to the downside -- and don't even look back -- then I'l have to re-assess the situation entirely, as in that case the downside fractal would be expanding in size, which could mean the decline was doubling. It doesn't happen very often this way, but when it does, it is serious business. But I don't think we'll see this scenario right now.
The shape of the decline into this 1175 target gives me more confidence that we'll see an important bottom in this area.
By David Nichols
October 12, 2005
I'm looking for another move lower, with the SPX dumping down to 1175, or perhaps if it gets emotional down to 1170. This move down looks set to happen sometime soon, either this week or next. In my opinion this will be a buying opportunity -- and a potentially excellent one. If the SPX does fall down to there, it's not going to feel too appetizing to step in and buy at that point. The way I handle that is to do a small position, and then add once the thesis gains more credibility. The risk can then be well-contained if the idea is wrong.
I want to buy such a down move to this 1175 area, as often markets like to move down to the spot of the original breakout before embarking on the last leg up. In this current fractal, 1178 was the spot of the original upside breakout back in May.
-----------
October 13, 2005
As far as this decline, it's time to ask the age-old back-seat-of-the-car question: "Are we there yet?"
This looks to me like a classic bottom at 1175, which has been my lower target since 1227, which is over 50 points higher. I have 3 separate fractal projections for a low right in this 1175 zone, which gives me confidence in this forecast for a bottom.
If prices simply blow through this area to the downside -- and don't even look back -- then I'l have to re-assess the situation entirely, as in that case the downside fractal would be expanding in size, which could mean the decline was doubling. It doesn't happen very often this way, but when it does, it is serious business. But I don't think we'll see this scenario right now.
The shape of the decline into this 1175 target gives me more confidence that we'll see an important bottom in this area.