Daily Trading - Stock Analysis Discussion

Stock Short Long Trend Days to Target
AA 27.51 25.88 South 4.59
AXP 60.52 58.51 North 3.60
BA 66.57 63.55 North 3.59
C 46.13 44.62 South 4.06
CAT 59.23 56.55 North 3.32
DD 41.36 39.20 South 4.61
DIS 24.63 23.45 South 4.52
EK 26.29 24.39 South 4.86
GE 34.93 33.75 South 4.05
GM 33.94 31.18 North 3.97
HD 40.98 38.98 North 3.99
HON 40.15 38.37 North 3.68
HPQ 29.09 27.65 North 3.03
IBM 82.28 78.60 North 4.11
INTC 25.51 24.15 South 3.96
IP 32.42 30.59 South 4.55
JNJ 65.83 63.68 South 3.87
JPM 35.59 34.35 North 4.12
KO 44.07 42.78 South 3.82
MCD 35.10 33.50 North 3.65
MMM 74.80 71.30 South 4.40
MO 74.51 71.73 North 3.20
MRK 30.51 27.07 South 6.94
MSFT 26.59 25.65 North 3.95
PG 56.94 54.92 North 3.80
SBC 24.69 23.87 North 4.00
T 20.28 19.53 North 3.78
UTX 52.29 50.29 South 3.88
WMT 44.81 42.95 South 4.62
 
1st – Thanks to kalzayani for the Large Cap Trading Profile provided.
Question for kalzayani – What are you using for your analysis, especially Days To Target?
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TRADES OF THE DAY (for me on Friday)
Purchases:
GLW @ 20.05 – holding
IRIS @ 18.14 – holding (added to position held @ 18.01)
RSTI @ 37.90 – holding
ZMH Dec 75c @ 2.50 - holding
ELOS @ 18.50 – holding (added to position held @ 37.25)
Sales:
OPTIONS EXPIRATION ACTIVITY:
# options –sold calls 30 exercised 25 (all covered)
# options –sold puts 20 exercised 0
avg annualized return – 38%
avg holding period - 25 days
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GENERAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY:

S&P 500 - potential cup and handle (see below)
Dow Jones - testing resistance at 10700
Transport Indicators - possible top
Nasdaq - rising wedge
Treasury Yields - long-term weakness
Gold - 17-year high (up over $10 last week)
FTSE 100 - cup and handle
Nikkei 225 - gapped up
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The S&P 500 started the week with consolidation followed by a short (bullish) down-swing. Further consolidation preceded a strong blue candle and the index appears headed for another test of resistance at 1245. A close above 1245 would complete a bullish cup and handle pattern.

Exceptional volume on Friday attributable to triple-witching hour. Contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options simultaneously expire on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. The last hour of trading is highly volatile as traders attempt to close their positions.



The primary trend is up, but we still have this tiresome rising wedge pattern. Completion of the cup and handle pattern would be a bullish sign for the entire market. The target is almost 1300, which would mean a breakout from the larger wedge pattern: 1245 + (1245 - 1200) = 1290. Money Flow (21-day) is looking bullish, having crossed to above zero after a short retracement.

Primary support is at 1140.



Monday Watchlist:
#1 Wall Street will be looking for big things from Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley this week after Lehman Bros. reported a 74% increase in net income.

#2 NHY buying SKE – energy play likely to spark energy-related buying. Also in play is ABS and PKS (a large holder is Bill Gates).
 
Hello cowpok1027,
Thanks for the Question
It's really derived from the levels themselves...
the equation is use for that is
(Upper Level/Lower Level-1)/Stdev(Daily Close_Change)

since the Stdev(DailyClose_Change)=Close(t)/Close(t-1)
Gives change/Day
then the invesre will give Days/Change

Since is the expected change (Either way)
(Upper Level/Lower Level-1)

(Upper Level/Lower Level-1)/Stdev(Daily Close_Change)
Should approximate Days In Position

GL
 
Dear kalzayani -

I don't generally trade stocks from your list altho I watch some for leadership trends.

Anyway, I'm interpreting your list as follows:
SHORT=point @ which you feel a short play profit should be taken
LONG=point @ which you feel a long play profit should be taken
Trend = North means you feel its in uptrend
Trend = South means you feel its in downtrend
Days to Target ?? (holding period from Monday to objective Short / Long perhaps?)

I've only looked @ IBM from your list - SO HOW CAN YOU HAVE THIS AS "NORTH" (bullish) ??

Good Trading & Good Health !! cowpok
 
Yes...It is!
From the Entry point (If went into position)...
The next target is the other level...(at least to start with)
the days to target is an average number of days for the stock to the Job..(Under Normal Volitility)...
possible recommendation is to use a trail=((Target-Entry)/days To target))...
Should approximate the daily average slope...
=$$ Per day
 
The markets were in free fall umntil almost noon then seemed to steady for over 2 hours before turning lower again as I write.

Best plays on the long side seem to be mostly in Energy-related & metals-related (altho XAU is slightly negative most gold company stocks are positive).

Trades completed today:
GOOG in @ 303.25 out @ 305.05
ITRI in @ 50.50 out @ 51.10
VLO in @ 111.50 out @ 112.62
FORD in @ 26.25 out @ 26.75
ENER in @ 37.60 out @ 38.95

cowpok
 
GENERAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY:

Levels to Watch in Trading
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA - 10,557.6) - support at 10,400; resistance at 10,850
S&P 500 (SPX - 1,231.02) - support at 1,120; resistance at 1,250
Nasdaq Composite (COMP - 2,145.3) - support at 1,900; resistance at 2,265

Monday Watchlist:

#1 Wall Street will be looking @ The Federal Reserve, where, despite the disruptions caused by Katrina a hike of 25 basis points is expected (currently @ 3.5%).

#2 Overstock.com Inc.'s (OSTK) stock fell sharply on Monday after the online retailer said problems with a technology upgrade delayed product listings on its Web site and led to sharply lower quarterly sales. OSTK closed below $40 & received a brokerage downgrade (expect more). If you have ever seen this guy who is OSTK’s CEO (he’s been on CNBC a nujmber of times) you know this is a very dangerous stock to play.
 
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