You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
cRUDE awakening?
- Thread starter gharghur2
- Start date
Quote from steveosborne:
I think it will go down to $58 or close to it but bounce back and fluctuate around $60.
Looks like the beast is tamed for a while anyway.
Seasonals would suggest a trading range at lower levels for a few months, I think.
There are others that know better than I, I'm sure.
I've not posted for months, busy, but on a fundamental basis:
- global production running ahead of weakening demand for both crude and distillates; contrary to the confused IEA report, ytd China demand growth very much (more than 50%) below same period last year so a gradual splintering of 'the China story' as the 11th 5-year plan calls for different, more scientific, development priorities; US consumers helping prove that distillates demand is not inelastic, gradual re-ramping of GOM production and refiners, etc.
- I'd say that we'll see CL in the 30s sometime next year - If pressed, I'd say JUNE or possibly JULY.
- a CL/NG type spread might be interesting through JAN.
- global production running ahead of weakening demand for both crude and distillates; contrary to the confused IEA report, ytd China demand growth very much (more than 50%) below same period last year so a gradual splintering of 'the China story' as the 11th 5-year plan calls for different, more scientific, development priorities; US consumers helping prove that distillates demand is not inelastic, gradual re-ramping of GOM production and refiners, etc.
- I'd say that we'll see CL in the 30s sometime next year - If pressed, I'd say JUNE or possibly JULY.
- a CL/NG type spread might be interesting through JAN.