Since someone (hardrock375) asked 
From: harrytrader2000
Date: Fri Jan 3, 2003 10:40 am (european hour)
Subject: Crashindex url @ [erased by me hihi]
Hello,
Sorry for yesterday's late update for model charts because of
holliday, I wasn't there to do it sooner.
This year begins with a big rally : is it the famous january effect ?
It seems so. You can sometimes hear that it begins from the last 5
days of December until the first 5 days of January. It was a bit late
to do so but it eventually did it!
In fact there was even a crash signal Friday but we told you that
stochastic models are inherently not fully trustable since they are
relying on probabiliities and that you must wait a confirmation at
8200 since our "fundamental" model told us this level was a very
strong support. So it was a failed cash signal and experienced
traders know that failed signal is also a signal (see for example
psychology of trading @
http://www.futurestradingschool.com/technical/psycho/psycho.htm), in
fact a very strong signal because many people were catched in wrong
positions and got to reverse quickly by doubling their position in
the opposite direction. Since we introuced you the pseudo-elliott
projections you could have seen that all invalidation sell levels
were hit straigth away.
Last remark these big rallies between 4 and 5% usually happened when
approaching monthly supports. Coïncidentally, we can remark that
if
1% is a daily average percentage, the statistic formula gives an
average of SQRT(21) = 4.58% for 21 days in a month. Nevertheless this
is not a demonstration because connecting a deterministic but complex
model with stochastic is not an easy task.
After that big rally where's the market going ? If we look at extreme
projections on daily scale 2 (ie projections at time units above 10
which is the normal charts limit - this is mentionned in the guide @ ... ) we can see that
the max base level after 31/12 was 8601.65. We made a high 7 point
above. You know that each time reached a max or min level it is a
turning point so expect a pullback before market could pass this
level towards the projected level of 9039.34. If it turned back under
8266 the rally will probably fail and target 6794.
1 d 31/12/02
1 base min base: 8302.11 proj: 8266.41
113 proj min base: 8362.99 proj: 6794.38
31 base max base: 8601.65 proj: 9039.34
31 proj max base: 8601.65 proj: 9039.34
From: harrytrader2000
Date: Fri Jan 3, 2003 10:40 am (european hour)
Subject: Crashindex url @ [erased by me hihi]
Hello,
Sorry for yesterday's late update for model charts because of
holliday, I wasn't there to do it sooner.
This year begins with a big rally : is it the famous january effect ?
It seems so. You can sometimes hear that it begins from the last 5
days of December until the first 5 days of January. It was a bit late
to do so but it eventually did it!
In fact there was even a crash signal Friday but we told you that
stochastic models are inherently not fully trustable since they are
relying on probabiliities and that you must wait a confirmation at
8200 since our "fundamental" model told us this level was a very
strong support. So it was a failed cash signal and experienced
traders know that failed signal is also a signal (see for example
psychology of trading @
http://www.futurestradingschool.com/technical/psycho/psycho.htm), in
fact a very strong signal because many people were catched in wrong
positions and got to reverse quickly by doubling their position in
the opposite direction. Since we introuced you the pseudo-elliott
projections you could have seen that all invalidation sell levels
were hit straigth away.
Last remark these big rallies between 4 and 5% usually happened when
approaching monthly supports. Coïncidentally, we can remark that
if
1% is a daily average percentage, the statistic formula gives an
average of SQRT(21) = 4.58% for 21 days in a month. Nevertheless this
is not a demonstration because connecting a deterministic but complex
model with stochastic is not an easy task.
After that big rally where's the market going ? If we look at extreme
projections on daily scale 2 (ie projections at time units above 10
which is the normal charts limit - this is mentionned in the guide @ ... ) we can see that
the max base level after 31/12 was 8601.65. We made a high 7 point
above. You know that each time reached a max or min level it is a
turning point so expect a pullback before market could pass this
level towards the projected level of 9039.34. If it turned back under
8266 the rally will probably fail and target 6794.
1 d 31/12/02
1 base min base: 8302.11 proj: 8266.41
113 proj min base: 8362.99 proj: 6794.38
31 base max base: 8601.65 proj: 9039.34
31 proj max base: 8601.65 proj: 9039.34