Crash or Bottom?

[MacroEvent]

1204 will probably be broken early this week and by friday we will not be back above it if oil holds or climbs. there has definitely been the beginnings of a sentiment shift in the last few weeks --- that was the signal of our highs for the time being.

sideline monies are not going into this market if oil keeps in a pre-parabolic price range.

looks like we may go back to the range area we were in when the london bombing news had hit --- 1190's to low 1200 levels.

 

[Bitstream]

Quote from Pabst:

I think there's a 50% chance that we gap hard below these levels to-morrow.

Pabst, If that's the case, what are you going to do?
Do you usually trade the first hour?
How would you position yourself?
cheers.

 

[Pabst]

Quote from Bitstream:

Pabst, If that's the case, what are you going to do?
Do you usually trade the first hour?
How would you position yourself?
cheers.

Unfortunately I may need to make a pot of coffee tonight and be ready to do something in the overnight.

 

[MacroEvent]

good idea --- if you miss this move you may need later to sit down and have a bourbon!

 

[Pabst]

Quote from MacroEvent:

good idea --- if you miss this move you may need later to sit down and have a bourbon!

I better stock up now. Mash prices may skyrocket on damage by Katrina.

 

[MacroEvent]

good point --- that would be an expensive bourbon!

 

[Pabst]

I'd like to get a sample 50 up in this poll.

 

[mtzianos]

Quote from Pabst:

I'd like to get a sample 50 up in this poll.

Why?

I don't understand the usefulness of polls on short-term market direction, especially on SPX (other than perhaps as a sentiment indicator).

PS: My answer would be, "I don't know" where it'll be in 2 weeks.

 

[Pabst]

Quote from mtzianos:

Why?

I don't understand the usefulness of polls on short-term market direction, especially on SPX (other than perhaps as a sentiment indicator).

PS: My answer would be, "I don't know" where it'll be in 2 weeks.

Looking for sentiment. At inflections there's often a tell.

 

[Bitstream]

Quote from Pabst:

Looking for sentiment. At inflections there's often a tell.

Sentiment overall in these board is pretty negative. Doesn't it suggest we should be skeptical and adopt a contrarian view when mood reaches extremes. Three weeks ago everything looked rosy after solid earnings and good economic data. Many people probably thought the market could have kept going higher until the end of the year.