look for divergence between commercials and small specs. Take a look at cotton for example on the CFTC site. Watch how the commercials respond to price and then how the priced moves next. Often times in cash market commodities like ags, softs, meats, and energy the commercials are highly accurate because they are users of the commodity. Oil commercials have been heavily short since the April peak in prices. Unleaded Gas commercials have been more long suggesting what we know, tight gasoline refinery capacity supporting gas prices but plentiful crude oil.
