Commodity futures as a predictor of geopolitical unrest?

[jjchoi]

Hey guys. Some advice would be greatly appreciated.

I'm looking for published cases/studies (academic journals would be ideal) which show empirically that major moves in commodity futures prices preceded major geopolitical unrest (ie., terrorist attacks, invasion of oil exporting countries, wars, etc.).

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from jjchoi:
----published cases/studies (academic journals would be ideal)....
----major moves in commodity futures prices preceded major geopolitical unrest....

1) Do you attend DePaul or Loyola?
2) You might find some of what you're looking for at socionomics.org and/or socionomics.net
3) The stock market may be a better baromeeter of anticipating calamity than commodities. Generally, a bear market has to occur before the necessary "psychology" is in place to bring about the expected strife. :eek: