Chaos Mathematics Calls the top in the DOW

[pandorasbox]

I have this indicator I use that relies on chaos mathematics to call the tops and bottoms of stocks. It uses non linear Hurst Exponent and cycle analysis and it is remarkably accurate.

The magenta lines show the extreme hurst extensions.

Take a look at the bear market.

 

[pandorasbox]

Here is the recent bull run.
Notice the magenta bar yesterday and keep your hats on...

 

[notouch]

I also notice the magenta bar from the end of February and we're currently 1000 points above those levels so my hat feels quite secure right now.

 

[pandorasbox]

That signaled a bottom turn...

Quote from notouch:

I also notice the magenta bar from the end of February and we're currently 1000 points above those levels so my hat feels quite secure right now.

 

[notouch]

The old magical magenta line indicator, eh? It's all falling into place now.

 

[pandorasbox]

Here it is color coded...

 

[JimmyJam]

Quote from pandorasbox:

That signaled a bottom turn...

Yes you're right ... so we can't really tell what your indicator is saying, seeing as how it's just Blue and Magenta bars on a tradestation chart.

We don't know why it interchanges the bar colors (lots of other SELL SIGNALS were Blue - at least that's what I think they were), what its win percentage is, how far the move goes in the direction of the change, or really anything else about it.

Except that it's probably garbage.

Jimmy Jam

 

[pandorasbox]

I agree, I should have pointed out what the blue lines mean. They signal a point where the price data is very 'compressed' and likely to have an increase in volatility, usually in the form of a new trend.

So to summarize:
Blue - Start of trend (volatility)
Red - End of upmove
Green - End of down move

Buy some puts here and you will thank me later...

Quote from JimmyJam:

Yes you're right ... so we can't really tell what your indicator is saying, seeing as how it's just Blue and Magenta bars on a tradestation chart.

We don't know why it interchanges the bar colors (lots of other SELL SIGNALS were Blue - at least that's what I think they were), what its win percentage is, how far the move goes in the direction of the change, or really anything else about it.

Except that it's probably garbage.

Jimmy Jam

 

[spreadn00b]

Hurst cycles are bullshit. If you look at a Hurst cycle line generated today and then look at the same cycle line generated tomorrow, they'll be different. As it becomes more "historical" the line becomes better fitted to the historical data.

I'm not sure how much of your calculations rely on this, but be careful.

 

[JimmyJam]

Quote from pandorasbox:

I agree, I should have pointed out what the blue lines mean. They signal a point where the price data is very 'compressed' and likely to have an increase in volatility, usually in the form of a new trend.

So to summarize:
Blue - Start of trend (volatility)
Red - End of upmove
Green - End of down move

Buy some puts here and you will thank me later...

LOL, I have my own system for trading, both postion and intra-day, but thanks for the offer, nonetheless.

But I still don't know what the Magenta line represents and we don't have any of the other pertinent data that I mentioned ... so, really, what's your point?

Besides another thread calling a top, that is.

Jimmy Jam