MAN, I ALMOST NEVER BRAG BUT TOLD YA SO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
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Candle Traders
- Thread starter Rickshaw Man
- Start date
That resistance was taken out in a very weak fashion. This was a classic Turtle Soup fake out.
Quote from reddragon:
Hi all,
My apologies for being slow to reply but it's been a very
warm, sunny weekend and i've been outside enjoying it.
My interpretation of the C/stick chart for the Dow up to the close
of 22nd June is as follows:
5 point Doji on 27th May followed by a drop of 75pts next
trading day showed Resistance.
Another Doji on 2nd June followed by a 93pt drop next day
confirmed Resistance.
The open/close on the 16th June was above the close of the
Doji of 2nd June, and the 45pt rise on the 17th June showed
that the Resistance had been overcome.
The concensus in Technical analysis is that what was Resistance
now needs to be support before the market moves up.
The first show of support , IMO, came on 20th June when the
Daily low @ 10,562 was 3pts above the Daily high of the Doji
of 2nd June , which was 10,559.
The daily lows for the next two days, 21 + 22 June were above
10,562 - with the second show of support given by the low of
22nd June @10,578 which was the close on the 16th of June.
Finally, the Open/Close for the C/sicks on 20/21/22 June were
all inside the Open/Close for the 17th June.
My analysis was for a move up and i set my stop @ 10,550 which
was a few points below the close of the 2nd June Doji.
Of course what happened on the 23rd + 24th shows how wrong
you can be !!
I usually reverse. What do you do Nihaba?
Quote from NihabaAshi:
Hi reddragon,
Thanks for the reply.
I notice you call the small real body on May 27th a doji.
You also called the almost like hangman on June 2nd a doji.
With that said...is your analysis based on interpretation of a doji line or more about just price action itself (less emphasis on candlesticks).
Here's my question especially since you saw the bodies of June 20th, 21st and 22nd within the body (difference between Open and Close) of June 17th...
Did the Dark Inverted Hammer on June 22nd change your bias that the probabilities for an up move to whatever profit targets you had wasn't likely to occur. ???
I guess I saying that you obviously consider long lower shadows as support than the long upper shadow on June 22nd must have been a strong resistance line to you.
Therefore, if your Long and you see a bearish signal...what do you normally do...
* Stay with the Long
* Reverse your trade
* Close your position eventhough your stop was not hit
* Another option I failed to mention
NihabaAshi
Quote from sunnyskies:
I usually reverse. What do you do Nihaba?
Hey sunnyskies,
I usually do one of the following:
* Reverse my trade
* Close my position eventhough my stop was not hit
* Another option I failed to mention
To go into a little detail about the above.
If its one of my best trade signals that appears after I'm already in a trade...
I'll reverse my position eventhough it didn't hit my initial stop/loss or trailing stop.
Another option (something I discussed in a prior price action only thread) that I've been using whenever I'm prepared for such...
If I'm at a profit and a trade signal appears that's against my open position...
I'll tighten up my trailing stop and take a trade in another trading instrument.
For example...lets say I'm short ES and then I get a long signal in ES...
I'll go Long in either YM, ER2 or NQ while protecting my profits in the ES short position via tightening up my trailing stop.
I only do that for my best trade signals.
Nothing magical nor too difficult especially since I watch ES, NQ, ER2 and NQ at the same time on my monitors.
NihabaAshi
Hi all,
Ok, with hindsight it's obvious that my analysis @ EOD on
Wed 22nd was wrong, but this is how i read it.
Looking back at the resistance shown by the Bearish
Engulfing pattern on 7th / 8th April, 61pt Up day followed by
a drop next of 84pts, the highs of these two days were
10,557 and 10,553 respectively, with the close of the Up
stick of the 7th @ 10,546.
The 4 pt body (Doji) on 2nd June opened @ 10,548, closed
@ 10,553 with a daily high of 10,559.
This confirmed strong resistance which IMO was broken
on the 16th June.
I agree that the long upper shadow on the 22nd showed that
the bulls, as yet IMO, had not gained the upper hand, but
the 2 support points i mentioned in my previous post showed
that previous resistance was now support.
Of course what happened on Thursday showed how wrong
i was and my trade was stopped out @ 10,550.
Ok, with hindsight it's obvious that my analysis @ EOD on
Wed 22nd was wrong, but this is how i read it.
Looking back at the resistance shown by the Bearish
Engulfing pattern on 7th / 8th April, 61pt Up day followed by
a drop next of 84pts, the highs of these two days were
10,557 and 10,553 respectively, with the close of the Up
stick of the 7th @ 10,546.
The 4 pt body (Doji) on 2nd June opened @ 10,548, closed
@ 10,553 with a daily high of 10,559.
This confirmed strong resistance which IMO was broken
on the 16th June.
I agree that the long upper shadow on the 22nd showed that
the bulls, as yet IMO, had not gained the upper hand, but
the 2 support points i mentioned in my previous post showed
that previous resistance was now support.
Of course what happened on Thursday showed how wrong
i was and my trade was stopped out @ 10,550.