Can a retail trader succeed in algorithmic trading? (Kevin Davey vs Ernest Chan)

[ma_trader]

The basic fact of the matter: if you love problem solving, the market is just an other puzzle, and you can have as much money as you want.

Its not in the numbers or indicators, its the edge around which you design the trading system.

Running tests won't give you the edge, spend time finding your edge.

Thats the core of your system, manual or automated.

 

[ma_trader]

If you figured out how to trade off 5 min chart with ema all I can say, is wow. I ran countless back tests over a decade testing all usual shit: ema, bollinger, rsi, Macd and etc nothing showed positive expectancy in the long run.

Good luck

You have to find the edge and then run the tests..!!

 

[darthtraderbeta]

De Prado's point is that since all strategies have a shelf life, you need a team to build a strategy factory for true long term success. He is also not talking about retail but about other's people money. You can't take the risk free or index rate for 2 years with OPM while you figure out a new winning strategy without going out of business. A single retail trader could do exactly that.

26,000,000 people play basketball in the US alone but 450 play in the NBA. Of course if you sample randomly from all 26,000,000 million any random draw is basically "impossible" to make it to the NBA. This is just using imprecise language though considering there are 5 NBA games going on right now.

To say there is 0.00% of finding a profitable strategy on your own is obviously absurd. If you take all the people searching it is obviously a very low percentage but it is not 0.00%.

 

[RedDuke]

You have to find the edge and then run the tests..!!

correct. But every iteration increases chance of overfit. The question is where is the balance ?

if only EMAs worked, I would have been so rich, I can code anything. Yet, consistent expectancy is very hard to reach.

 

[ma_trader]

O

correct. But every iteration increases chance of overfit. The question is where is the balance ?

if only EMAs worked, I would have been so rich, I can code anything. Yet, consistent expectancy is very hard to reach.

Only EMAs work..! The thing is, only crossovers doesn't work... there are a thousand other ways of using EMAs, other than crossovers, those work.