Simple logic here:
If: Bull Market
Then: Sell in May and go away
If: Bear Market
Then: Buy(or cover) in May and go away*
Logical progression leads to the down trend resuming later in the year, after a mid-year pause. This would mean commodities pause here and resume uptrend later in the year.
Trend changes(bull to bear and vice-versa) need a shift in fundamentals. Fundamentals have not shifted out of Bear mode and this would corroborate the resumption of the Bear trend after the mid-year pause.
Until fundamentals change:
Mid-term - ranging with upside bias
Longterm -down
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Opinions?
*edit* I wrote sell in bear market, but meant to write buy
If: Bull Market
Then: Sell in May and go away
If: Bear Market
Then: Buy(or cover) in May and go away*
Logical progression leads to the down trend resuming later in the year, after a mid-year pause. This would mean commodities pause here and resume uptrend later in the year.
Trend changes(bull to bear and vice-versa) need a shift in fundamentals. Fundamentals have not shifted out of Bear mode and this would corroborate the resumption of the Bear trend after the mid-year pause.
Until fundamentals change:
Mid-term - ranging with upside bias
Longterm -down
----------
Opinions?
*edit* I wrote sell in bear market, but meant to write buy