More mindless bantering....
19:17 USD/MXN: Peso Plummets No News - Investment Banks $ Sellers] New York
August 23. USD/MXN ripped north this afternoon on no news, just cut outs - as
what started as a USD rally against majors ended up as an MXN debacle. Calls to
the few senior traders around confirmed that they had seen no underlying buyers
of dollars, but noted a premier US investment bank selling 300-400 mln USD
around 10.8300. The high has been 10.9130 which has capped the move on three or
four attempts. Some traders have been waiting for "the other shoe to drop" since
the Chiapas election impasse on Monday - and were surprised by the Peso"s
resilience in the midst of a ratcheting up of the political tensions in the
country.
Technical traders attribute the move to a breakdown in the underlying technical
picture, with spot closing over the 6 day M/A yesterday, and breaking above the
18 day M/A today. The initial up-move was prompted by spill over USD buying from
the majors market, but once the technicals broke down, momentum accounts started
to liquidate. Furthermore, MXN carry trades were being liquidated as the "pain"
outweighed the day to day "gain". A close above the 18 day M/A will be very
negative from a technical standpoint - but at present the market does not look
like it will cede the dollar"s current gains. The 50% Fibo of the 10.3970/
11.5185 Lo/ Hi is at 10.9580 and may slow the move down, although daily RSIs are
in comfortable territory at 58. Hourly RSI is at 84.5 and is extended, so it is
likely we are close to the highs for today.