I have lived for a number of years in Brazil and am still living there. There is no doubt that Brazil has seen it's growth in exports which have been fast and tremendous. Much of this is connected to China's consumption - and trade between the two countries have skyrocketed.
Brazil is a very rich country in terms of natural resources. However, this is to little comfort for the poulation. Wages stay as low as possible, and there is no apparent incentives to bring consumers into the economy as a strong component.
Sales and product taxes are the second highest in the world, only surpassed by Thailand. A common product might have around 50 different taxes applied before reaching consumers.
Of course the brazilian "jeitinho" (little way of things) means that most businessmen try and avoid any paying of taxes by bribing officials doing controls or writing the reports. It's a common saying that the fastest way to get rich in Brazil is to become a politician and get your hands on some federal money flowing through your office.
Corruption is rampant, and in such a scale that it boggles the mind, really. There are a lot of seriously rich people in Brazil, but Brazil heavily lowers the average in south america of 40% living under conditions normally labeled as slums. The worst treated people are most times native indians who live in small villages, where federal programs very seldom see the day of light.
Now, with Lula elected ,the first president not from the historical elite in Brazil, there has certainly been some change. But with the corruption scandals and payouts revealed with the ruling working party (PT), any last illutions have been shattered.
Of course, Brazil makes a lot of money on exports and natural resources, but the country is like Fort Knox when trying to import goods if you are a consumer. A flat 60% tax is applied on imported products, the national production facilities are so protected and the politicians so embedded in various schemes and kickbacks from the factory owners that it will take quite a feat to open up the trading borders and get any consumers accustomed to higher quality goods.
In Sao Paulo you can get most things though, and "grey import" and contraband is readily available.
Now, protecting national producers by inventing special national TV standards is nothing new - and both the US and China etc. use these tactics to hinder free trade - it's simply incompatible technologies. That bolsters the grip on internal markets, and makes it prohibitively expensive for external companies which must have double the product lines. Then one starts complaining about the other countries "not opening up" for their technologies to start converting markets abroad.
Well, this backfires some times as is the case with GSM, where services are far more advanced than under other technologies like CDMA. DoCoMo is the exception, but Japan has some very advanced consumers.
Now, there are of course opportunities for foreign companies in Brazil as well, but dealing with the corruption and harsh laws which applies is exhausting after some time. Also, the political situation and very unstable currency makes it a very expensive proposition to not cater for the long haul in doing business here. There will be serious ups and downs, and bribes is for sure unavoidable. Anyone doing business here and saying they are totally honest and not paying any bribes anywhere are most certianly lying.
Everyone knows how to make a cut for themselves, and are not hesitant to exploit any advantage or leverage they might have. Everywhere you meet someone pushing someone else they know to do some work for you, it practically part of the culture or way to do things and get them done. Red tape is a hassle, and Brazil has what's called "underemployment" (sic?) where any João is found at rest rooms/cleaning toilets, operating elevators or doing some pointless task.
Of course, the US also has a lot of poor, are well accustomed to corruption schemes domestically and (perhaps especially) abroad. But they still have a strong backing by involving consumers which enjoy a way of life by trading leverages and advantages which makes foreign workers and products valued a lot less than they might. This way of life is not easily toppled, and is not something other rich nations will allow.
Therefore, still with the G20 going, and Brazil making a lot of money, they will not become a super-power in my view, because of internal and external obstacles and resistance. I doubt it will ever happen without first some serious change in world order, like if China and India construct the worlds definite trading bloc. Then the US (and some other countries') consumers way of things is certainly starting on the end of the road.
The brazilian Real will probably become a little better over the next years though. Perhaps sustaining some of the growth in the economy; they should be able to do so at least, if they don't pocket too much of the money.
