Betting on Fed hike tomorrow

[thecalip]

Quote from myminitrading:

These clowns are playing with fire, and are gonna get burned.

you dont' think we already burning?

The government had printed so much money in the last few years, no wonder we have to raise rate to make the USD attractive to foreigners and keep inflation "low". Want proof? Next time you go to the bank, withdraw $500 in $20 bill, and count how many set of $20 are there.

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from myminitrading:

The right thing to do would be to raise rates, all incoming inflation data is flashing warning signals big time.


Energy prices are climbing, the dollar is falling. What a mess. Foreign bankers have us by the balls. Dovish statements will send the dollar lower, not good for our foreign bankers. If we weren't so dependent on them the fed could make intelligent decisions but we are in a position of fiscal weakness.


Bernake is a pussy, he will let the markets and wallstreet tell him what to do. Right now the market wants a pause, most likely they will get it.

I will stand and cheer if they raise rates and talk tough about inflation, thats what need to be done.

everyone sounds like a broken record:

all the inflationary indicators - that's WHY the fed started raising rate 24 months ago - to impact what is happening now. if they raise now the hike won't be felt for another 24 months. HIKING NOW DOES NOTHING TO THE ECONOMY TODAY. it's going to take several more quarters to feel the hikes that the fed made 18 months ago. take a macro class.

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from thecalip:

isn't it always announce at 2pm est?

2:15 pm EST

 

[myminitrading]

Quote from krazykarl:

everyone sounds like a broken record:

all the inflationary indicators - that's WHY the fed started raising rate 24 months ago - to impact what is happening now. if they raise now the hike won't be felt for another 24 months. HIKING NOW DOES NOTHING TO THE ECONOMY TODAY. it's going to take several more quarters to feel the hikes that the fed made 18 months ago. take a macro class.

Really thats interesting, I see you have not factored the price of rising energy into you analisys.

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from myminitrading:

Really thats interesting, I see you have not factored the price of rising energy into you analisys.

nope - but the fed did - specifically greenspan.


edit: the fed is more proactive then people give them credit for.

 

[robertstone]

This is Greenie After I yelled at him for causing the bubble to Pop in March 2000 with all those crazy rate hikes

--RS

 

[myminitrading]

I want rates to move higher, wise folks want the same as well, they get better returns without the risk.

Dumb bunnies will be crushed because they live beyond their means and have know savings.

 

[Pabst]

Quote from myminitrading:

Really thats interesting, I see you have not factored the price of rising energy into you analisys.

Do you think the dot-head who buys a used BMW in Bombay gives a rats ass what the targeted overnight lending rate in the U.S. is...

In other words, the Fed is impotent in corralling global commodity prices.

Also, the strength in oil is the equivalent of a few rate hikes. One could correctly surmise that high commodity prices are anti-inflationary in an economy with stagnant wage growth. After all consumers can only spend so much on so many items. We all ready see a slowdown in discretionary leisure spending......

 

[Pabst]

Quote from myminitrading:

I want rates to move higher, wise folks want the same as well, they get better returns without the risk.

Dumb bunnies will be crushed because they live beyond their means and have know savings.

At this moment, persistently low rates on the long end of the curve pose larger systematic risks to the economy than higher rates. Forget mortgages ect. Not important. The REAL threat is to under funded pension and retirement funds along with insurers who never dreamt that the 30year would average a mere 5% yield for half a decade.......

 

[lundy]

intermediate move will continue to the upside, i wouldnt short this unless its just for an intraday move.

i only see more bullishness into expiration.