Best time to invest in a Hedge Fund

S

Sanjuro

If you are investing in a Hedge fund that's avg. 20% drawdowns
and 65% winning months.

Does it really matter when you invest in it?
Would it help if you waited for a 15% drawdown before investing?
Or waited for 1 or 2 losing months and put your money in?

Personally, I think it would help but probabilistic, I don't think
it should make a difference. A coin is 50/50, just because I
have 3 tails in a row doesn't increase the chance of head the
next flip any.

So does waiting for losing months or drawdowns before putting
your money into a hedge fund help increase your returns?
 
The concept with a hedge fund is to make money consistently. I would say that your reasoning has validity for stock funds as it might reach turning points after streak of losses, but not for hedge funds.

As you will not know their strategies you can impossibly tell when the probability is higher for a win period. Spread your investments in the fund over time to decrease your risk.

Also set a stop-loss or trailing stop-loss.
 
Such kind of timing methods will not work for hedge fund IMHO. The hypostasis within pretty much resemble that of buying dips after the price falling of a stock.
However, the performance of some type of hedge funds, i.e. Global Macros, do exhibit a clear seasonal phenomenon.
 
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