Over the past 6 months I've been reading as much research as possible about agricultural commodities and have come to a conclusion and i'd like to hear your thoughts.
First I'll give you background.
I used to be "Soon2BTrader" and am now a proprietary equities daytrader with a "professional" group of eqities daytraders. I have a strong finance education and have recently completed a year on an eq derivatives sales desk at a major bank. While at the bank I took advantage of their resources and read tons and tons of credible and very expensive private bank, investment bank, academic, and hedge fund research on "proprietary investment products" in general. I say it like that because my sole purpose in finance is to make money. I don't want to be right, I don't care how I make it, I just want to be where the money is and take as much out of the market as is in my destiny. As far as finance goes, I don't care about anything else. I graduated from one of the most respected finance bachelor programs in the world and have learned that too many people in this game are worried about being right, looking smart, or just having the title - "I'm a trader" "I trade at such and such place" "I'm a prop trader". Please. Basically I'm trying to set a tone (if possible) - please don't let serious social and personaliy flaws permeate this thread. We're all here to make money, so let's see if we can learn something from one another and each gain valuable information that will help us with our trading individually. No bickering or posturing or all that dumb $hyte. Sometimes I think this site is frequented by novices, big mouths, and stupid teenagers. The name of the site begins to look more and more like an oxymoron. Obviously on occasion I read great posts by true professionals and others who know how to post in a rationale manner such that they can prolong a valuable thread and squeeze all of the money out of it.
The culmination of my research and what I've taken from all of these reports I have looked at is that the 6 commodities i the title of this thread are probably the best long plays for the next 5 to 10 years (based on current conditions and resultant future probabilities. conditions are constntly changing, obviously). In my next post I will state why I think so, but what I'd love to hear is why you think I'm wrong about one of these markets so we can flesh it out.
Why am I doing this? I am a few years outta school and finally have $25,000 in ACTUAL RISK CAPITAL that I can afford to lose. (I lived a fast life after college.) My goal is to make as much as possible as quickly as possible. There are alot of diff markets out there, but it's obvious to me that the best place for me to make the most amount of money based on my capital size and risk tolerance is in commodity futures.
For cynics who doubt my judgement - yes I have no trading experience. But I'm not talking about trading techniques here. I'm talking about a fundamental/technical view on a market direction.
Would love to hear views on:
Short (1 year), mid, and long term (3 year) market outlooks on each product in the thread title. Please dont criticize the 3 year long term thing - Trying to "educated guess" market direction and behavior past 3 years is futile because of the exponential increase in the variability of random events. The same reason why long dated options are traded OTC by large institutions with massive amounts of capital and listed options aren't priced out past a few years - there's just too much risk.
None of this "fibonacci gann elliot wave optimized backtesting selective chart highlighting" bs either please. Plain english, straightforward sensical money-making discussion please. we're all grown-ups right?
oil, gold, corn, sugar, cotton, soy
Thoughts? =)
First I'll give you background.
I used to be "Soon2BTrader" and am now a proprietary equities daytrader with a "professional" group of eqities daytraders. I have a strong finance education and have recently completed a year on an eq derivatives sales desk at a major bank. While at the bank I took advantage of their resources and read tons and tons of credible and very expensive private bank, investment bank, academic, and hedge fund research on "proprietary investment products" in general. I say it like that because my sole purpose in finance is to make money. I don't want to be right, I don't care how I make it, I just want to be where the money is and take as much out of the market as is in my destiny. As far as finance goes, I don't care about anything else. I graduated from one of the most respected finance bachelor programs in the world and have learned that too many people in this game are worried about being right, looking smart, or just having the title - "I'm a trader" "I trade at such and such place" "I'm a prop trader". Please. Basically I'm trying to set a tone (if possible) - please don't let serious social and personaliy flaws permeate this thread. We're all here to make money, so let's see if we can learn something from one another and each gain valuable information that will help us with our trading individually. No bickering or posturing or all that dumb $hyte. Sometimes I think this site is frequented by novices, big mouths, and stupid teenagers. The name of the site begins to look more and more like an oxymoron. Obviously on occasion I read great posts by true professionals and others who know how to post in a rationale manner such that they can prolong a valuable thread and squeeze all of the money out of it.
The culmination of my research and what I've taken from all of these reports I have looked at is that the 6 commodities i the title of this thread are probably the best long plays for the next 5 to 10 years (based on current conditions and resultant future probabilities. conditions are constntly changing, obviously). In my next post I will state why I think so, but what I'd love to hear is why you think I'm wrong about one of these markets so we can flesh it out.
Why am I doing this? I am a few years outta school and finally have $25,000 in ACTUAL RISK CAPITAL that I can afford to lose. (I lived a fast life after college.) My goal is to make as much as possible as quickly as possible. There are alot of diff markets out there, but it's obvious to me that the best place for me to make the most amount of money based on my capital size and risk tolerance is in commodity futures.
For cynics who doubt my judgement - yes I have no trading experience. But I'm not talking about trading techniques here. I'm talking about a fundamental/technical view on a market direction.
Would love to hear views on:
Short (1 year), mid, and long term (3 year) market outlooks on each product in the thread title. Please dont criticize the 3 year long term thing - Trying to "educated guess" market direction and behavior past 3 years is futile because of the exponential increase in the variability of random events. The same reason why long dated options are traded OTC by large institutions with massive amounts of capital and listed options aren't priced out past a few years - there's just too much risk.
None of this "fibonacci gann elliot wave optimized backtesting selective chart highlighting" bs either please. Plain english, straightforward sensical money-making discussion please. we're all grown-ups right?
oil, gold, corn, sugar, cotton, soy
Thoughts? =)
