Bear Blowup Could Reignite Bull Market

Quote from atticus:

Yeah, imagine the pathology of a guy in NYC working as a waiter at a Italian steak house, calling tops as the market blows through his predictions. It's time to iron your little black vest.

Missed you in Chicago. You're woefully out of your depth, sweetie.

You can't win against me, ever.

And you know why? I've never been happier.

But please go on.
 
Quote from atticus:

The notional value of Bear's HF portfolio is fairly limited. I'd expect Bear to pop on Monday.

BSC opened @ 143.07 and is now trading @ 141. It has traded today under 140.

But please don't tell tough guy he was wrong, unless you're prepared to meet and fight !!
 
Quote from ghostzapper:

BSC opened @ 143.07 and is now trading @ 141. It has traded today under 140.

But please don't tell tough guy he was wrong, unless you're prepared to meet and fight !!

Tough guy? You're working for tips and running drag on weekends.
 
Quote from atticus:

Tough guy? You're working for tips and running drag on weekends.

Wow, you have serious issues. I bet i'm not the first person to tell you that.

Here's my 3 step program to help you lose the rage and become a happy person in life :

1) quit the drugs

2) love somebody and be true to them

3) lose the childish insults. Instead, try to be constructive.

Good luck, you'll obviously need it.
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

Ironically, the best thing that could happen for the market would be for this Bear blowup to get really ugly and threaten Bear and other banks and numerous funds. Then the Fed would more or less be forced to slash rates like Greenspan did in '98 when LTCM blew up. And unlike LTCM, this is purely a Mde In the USA problem. There is nothing wrong with any of that paper that a 75 BP cut wouldn't cure.

Fed is not going bail anyone out this time.



John
 
bear is big. and leaning a little out of the window to
rescue two of his assets. no big deal so far. the question
is if this is enough to start a stampede. in recent years
very much money was in the CDO market, in fact this
business was the main driver for the record results in
some of the major investment banks. who sold tons of
such structures to institutional investors all over the
globe. and credit spreads have shrunk to very tight
levels. now the question is if the US housing market is
enough of a trigger to make parts of that credit derivatives
building fall apart.

in may 2005 the almost bankruptcy of general motors
ignited a big correction in the credit market, or more
precisely in the standardized credit market and here
especially in the equity pieces, bringing implied correlations
to levels below 10, while having traded before above
20. back then rumor had it that one big hedge fund
would have to liquidate positions at these levels, putting
further stress on the pricing with a domino effect being
possible. it did not happen then. i think one of the
reasons was that the intransparent market and the
fact that they only reported monthly figures to
investors provided some time and the market took
some breath again. i think it was quite near a crisis
then, but it just cost few people their jobs at some
correlation desk.

the difference to stock or bond crisis IMHO is that the
effect does not necessarily unfold immediately. the
whole credit market is still so much driven by marked
to model, that it might still take some weeks to make
clear whether crisis is unfolding or not.

anxiety has increased. many desks are nervous. and
we are diving into low liquidity season. which is not
helpful either in this case.

i would not buy the knife now.
 
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