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Anyone short AXR?..looks like a great short
- Thread starter traderich
- Start date
The reason I ask for thoughts on a particular stock is because often we miss certain things that others see.
I wouldn't consider what I was saying back as arguing but questioning their logic.
I have found that going against the 'herd' works well with the stock market.
I was buying AMR when it fell to 1.25/share and everyone said it was BK for sure and huge shorts posting on yahoo how bad the stock was. AMR recently hit 40/share.
My view from the couch is that AXR is overpriced due to manipulation and supply/demand and will correct to below 100/share shortly.
cheers.
I wouldn't consider what I was saying back as arguing but questioning their logic.
I have found that going against the 'herd' works well with the stock market.
I was buying AMR when it fell to 1.25/share and everyone said it was BK for sure and huge shorts posting on yahoo how bad the stock was. AMR recently hit 40/share.
My view from the couch is that AXR is overpriced due to manipulation and supply/demand and will correct to below 100/share shortly.
cheers.
Quote from comp652:
This probably sounds silly to most. But how could I possibly tell if a stock has a "massive short interest" or long interest?
I must not have the right software to be able to tell.
Please tell me what I need for this.
Thanks
Comp
http://shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=axr&submit=Enter
AXR $ 136.04
Amrep Corp -10.29
Shares Short 1,448,227
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 6.1
Short % of Float 80.46 %
Shares Short - Prior 872,483
Short % Increase / Decrease 65.99 %
Squeeze Ranking⢠2,453
% from 52-Wk HIGH ( 149.99 ) -10.25 %
% from 52-Wk LOW ( 24.50 ) 81.99 %
% from 200-Day MA ( 67.93 ) 50.07 %
% from 50-Day MA ( 115.46 )
15.13 %
Price % Change (52-Wk) 499.71 %
Trading Volume - Today 473,600
Trading Volume - Average 237,300
Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 199.58 %
Total Shares - Float 1,800,000
Total Shares - Outstanding 6,652,612
% Held by Insiders 73.98 %
% Held by Institutions 16.40 %
Market Cap 905,021,292
EPS 4.16
PE Ratio 35.20
Sector: Financial
Industry: Real Estate Development
SI Record Date 2006-Dec
Information Provided Without Warranty
Quote from traderich:
The reason I ask for thoughts on a particular stock is because often we miss certain things that others see.
I wouldn't consider what I was saying back as arguing but questioning their logic.
I have found that going against the 'herd' works well with the stock market.
I was buying AMR when it fell to 1.25/share and everyone said it was BK for sure and huge shorts posting on yahoo how bad the stock was. AMR recently hit 40/share.
My view from the couch is that AXR is overpriced due to manipulation and supply/demand and will correct to below 100/share shortly.
cheers.
Financially the company earns $7 something per share though...they're only trading at 20X multiple. One curious thing is how they managed to have a $10M credit for their cost of revenue for the quarter ending October.
I don't have interest in a short position there...but you'd be wise to look at their financials...don't seem weak.
That and the fact that so many shares of a company with a really really small float are short. I'd actually be more likely to wait for a short squeeze. If anything this stock won't go down fast because on dips shorts will be looking to cover...can be a long and painful process...look at MAMA, ESCL, DDS, etc....they all have/had too many short positions open and until something prompted others to sell, shorts were most likely the ones buying back the bulk of volume.
IT WOULD TAKE 6 DAYS OF NOTHING BUT SHORT COVERING AT AVERAGE VOLUME TO CLOSE OUT SHORT POSITIONS....that makes this a really bad candidate to short. But hey, if you've not nerves of steel. If something big hits the wire overnight you could be in a long line of shorts queuing to get shares to cover.
Good luck.
yea, I guess you are right blast. This stock is really a tough one to call.
One one hand, I really love the small float.
On the other hand, the stock price has gone from 40 to 140 in a few short months.
Then again it may just be because the company is strong and some big shots are coming in buying up shares.
I think I just wish I had got this stock a few months ago.
Realistically and rationally thinking, I'd have to say with all the shares sold right now and so many people sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy shares, this makes for strong support of the stock price.
It just seems like it hit top and with a $10/share drop in one day that this was going to correct a little further before eventually heading up even further than the 140 mark.
I will be watching this stock very closely in the next week to see what happens.
Just looking at the chart of the stock, it would look like a good short candidate. But, once you realize how small the float is, how many folks already short the stock, and the huge insider ownership, the stock seems like a great long!
Interesting to say the least.
One one hand, I really love the small float.
On the other hand, the stock price has gone from 40 to 140 in a few short months.
Then again it may just be because the company is strong and some big shots are coming in buying up shares.
I think I just wish I had got this stock a few months ago.
Realistically and rationally thinking, I'd have to say with all the shares sold right now and so many people sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy shares, this makes for strong support of the stock price.
It just seems like it hit top and with a $10/share drop in one day that this was going to correct a little further before eventually heading up even further than the 140 mark.
I will be watching this stock very closely in the next week to see what happens.
Just looking at the chart of the stock, it would look like a good short candidate. But, once you realize how small the float is, how many folks already short the stock, and the huge insider ownership, the stock seems like a great long!
Interesting to say the least.
Quote from traderich:
yea, I guess you are right blast. This stock is really a tough one to call.
One one hand, I really love the small float.
On the other hand, the stock price has gone from 40 to 140 in a few short months.
Then again it may just be because the company is strong and some big shots are coming in buying up shares.
I think I just wish I had got this stock a few months ago.
Realistically and rationally thinking, I'd have to say with all the shares sold right now and so many people sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy shares, this makes for strong support of the stock price.
It just seems like it hit top and with a $10/share drop in one day that this was going to correct a little further before eventually heading up even further than the 140 mark.
I will be watching this stock very closely in the next week to see what happens.
Just looking at the chart of the stock, it would look like a good short candidate. But, once you realize how small the float is, how many folks already short the stock, and the huge insider ownership, the stock seems like a great long!
Interesting to say the least.
I was thinking the same thing about a long position...ha.
Not my type of stock, but it does look like a strong buy because of the large short position...the time to buy might be more like after the next short data comes out.
Traderich,
I followed this stock after your initial post. Wow!!!! You really missed out on some extreme chachingo here.
About -36 points since you posted.
Glad I didn't give you any advice on this. I will never advise anyone on a trade (I did it twice here and I was wrong once and that was enough).
You did the analysis, you do the trade. Afterall, it is your money. As you see, most people here aren't qualified to make suggestions about trading.
Scared money makes no money.
I followed this stock after your initial post. Wow!!!! You really missed out on some extreme chachingo here.
About -36 points since you posted.
Glad I didn't give you any advice on this. I will never advise anyone on a trade (I did it twice here and I was wrong once and that was enough).
You did the analysis, you do the trade. Afterall, it is your money. As you see, most people here aren't qualified to make suggestions about trading.
Scared money makes no money.
Victor, you smoking crack?
I shorted AXR at 131.55 and covered at 99.50. Granted only 100 shares cuz my broker was hard up on shares to loan me, but I was happy with the small position since I like the stock and just felt it was going to come back a bit after the rocketship rise!
anyways, I am standing on the sidelines for now. I would love to get some of these shares, but I like to buy cheap. I am thinking about 55/share but may not get it.
Anyways, I only posted to just see if any intelligent life existed on this site about trading, and from the replies I got, I think the good traders don't even bother posting as its a waste of time.
I might just surf and see if any interesting reading, but I am growing tired of posting on here and getting the bozo's who reply.
cheers.
I shorted AXR at 131.55 and covered at 99.50. Granted only 100 shares cuz my broker was hard up on shares to loan me, but I was happy with the small position since I like the stock and just felt it was going to come back a bit after the rocketship rise!
anyways, I am standing on the sidelines for now. I would love to get some of these shares, but I like to buy cheap. I am thinking about 55/share but may not get it.
Anyways, I only posted to just see if any intelligent life existed on this site about trading, and from the replies I got, I think the good traders don't even bother posting as its a waste of time.
I might just surf and see if any interesting reading, but I am growing tired of posting on here and getting the bozo's who reply.
cheers.
look at this reply from Dacxxxx.
What a complete bozo! Do you think this guy ever made a good trade in his life?
He's telling me nothing short about this stock? Meanwhile, from the time I posted this to now, the stock has dropped over 40 f%$%** points!
I think I would be hard pressed to find any traders on this site that can beat my picks, and I am not a genious by any means.
cheers.
What a complete bozo! Do you think this guy ever made a good trade in his life?
He's telling me nothing short about this stock? Meanwhile, from the time I posted this to now, the stock has dropped over 40 f%$%** points!
I think I would be hard pressed to find any traders on this site that can beat my picks, and I am not a genious by any means.
cheers.