Anyone else short 30yr bond? Trading all time highs 5/30/12

[benwm]

Where is Taleb's "uncle" point?

Old article (shorting at 3.64% yield)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azLmks3BmQm4

"It's a no brainer", he said. "Every single human being should have that trade."

And I wonder how Kyle Bass is doing with that short JGB position. When does he throw in the towel?

 

[Ghost of Cutten]

Quote from atrocious:

It's becoming fashionable to ridicule early top pickers and throw out 1% targets much like the entire CNBC fast money crew said $200 oil was a lock in 2008 about a week before it topped. Wish I had the video.

Food for thought:

I heard multiple times this weekend that bonds are being bought without regard to price/yield, just capital preservation. Why then is the long end blowing out, when you can preserve capital in 3 month bills still trading at a positive nominal yield?

I also hear "don't fight the fed" as justification for owning the long end. Well, considering 1.40% on the 10's is clearly a deflationary doomsday yield, you have to ask yourself who is fighting the fed when the chairman said he will do everything in his power to prevent a deflationary spiral.

Agree, Treasuries are now a serious risk to capital preservation, you could lose 10-20% in the long end if yields back up.

However, they are in a bull market so I don't think shorting them makes sense until they get into parabolic blowoff mode.

 

[Tradethoven]

Where did all those guys ridiculing the bear go? Still nursing those 152 longs? Lmao.