Another Trade of a lifetime - long treasury bonds (and T Notes)

[Nighthawk]

The Fed has brought real interest rates marginally positive... but with the other hand they're printing mountains of cash to pay IOER, which unlike QE is straight up injection of cash to the bank account rather than an asset swap. They're also printing hundreds of billions more by handing out round dollars for collateral (T-bonds) worth seventy or eighty cents.

It's far from clear that we are anywhere close to beating inflation. The negative carry (in real terms) is modest, at least.

Noted and agreed on the money printing.

Yet, I see the unfortunate timing of the Russian/Ukrainian troubles as main culprit for current inflationary environment. Using Copper and gold as traditional indicators, a recession is coming. Credit card delinquencies are at highs not seen since GFC in 2008. China doing really shitty. South America in a debt trap. Many other developing countries overburdened with debt and tumbling local currencies.

Where is the REAL demand driven inflation coming from? The FED´s and other CB´s narrative are HIGHLY questionable and late in response. Overreach is the danger.

In aggregate: the inflationary pressures are already subsiding quite dramatically.

I have only one concern currently: secondary effects of wage rises.

If the FED raises rates once again at next meeting = definitely add another shovel of longs.