Alice in Optionsland
- Thread starter qlai
- Start date
What's the max loss/profit if you let this thing go to expiry date? I am guessing the max loss is -$4500, since you are long on all the legs.
Yes, you are correct. However, the idea is to be selling shorter dated options to reduce/eliminate this debit. Here’s where things might get funky depending on how aggressive I will be with short strikes.
As far as max profit, it’s not so simple either
The goal is to be left with only long legs for the earnings. But it is possible that I can get stuck holding either long or short shares into earnings(if assigned). It’s not going to increase my risk, but it will hinder my chances of profiting.
Great strategy, no?
As far as max profit, it’s not so simple either
The goal is to be left with only long legs for the earnings. But it is possible that I can get stuck holding either long or short shares into earnings(if assigned). It’s not going to increase my risk, but it will hinder my chances of profiting.Great strategy, no?
Lol, apparently, I could've pushed even more as the market continued crashing all the way to the close. I am trying to do a trade review and see if there's anything I can learn from this trade. It's mostly for me to dot the i's, so may not be worth reading.
I risked almost 3.7k on the trade and made about 2.2k, not great risk:reward as a stand-alone trade(at some point I was up 8k mark-to-market, still not a great R:R). However, if I look at this trade as a hedge for my fat-finger, I think it was a "success" - I was able to convert original naked put into a defined-risk trade, plus gave myself a chance to come out at break even or better. If I was not so obsessed with keeping the "lottery ticket," I think I would be able to close it at break-even much sooner (by choosing longer term short legs at higher strikes - my lowest short strike was $900!).
If I look at this trade as a poor man's covered put, I think it was a disaster. TSLA experienced so much volatility during this time, which is what I was expecting (after-shocks), but it took me soooo long to get to break-event. One of the reasons for this was that I tried to push the trade and was choosing weekly options for short legs in order to maximize the un-covered time in the market for the long leg. The Santa Clause rally really hurt my long leg and it was a "miracle" that I got to make any money on it at all.
As I mentioned before, the main "improvement" would be for the long leg to include earnings release. Other than that, I'm not sure how I could've improved it(we don't know what we don't know). I think people mentioned favorable skew, but I don't feel like there is enough edge there to rely on(I maybe way wrong on this). One thing I really hate about this trade is how much baby-siting it required. With long options, I always get pressured from the time ticking and I feel like it forces me to be less patient in waiting for a good spots to sell premium. Scaling would help with this, but I doubt it would make it much easier or profitable. I think I'm starting to understand why many people here just set up structures like butterflies in a set-it-and-forget-it fashion. The only reason I started experimenting with options it to be less involved with markets on a day to day basis, not more involved.
I still have two other "earnings plays" outstanding which are not going smoothly either, so let's see if they convince me to give up on this idea for good.
Red arrow below is the day I opened the $990 calendar spread. The green arrows are the days I traded the short legs against my long leg.
I risked almost 3.7k on the trade and made about 2.2k, not great risk:reward as a stand-alone trade(at some point I was up 8k mark-to-market, still not a great R:R). However, if I look at this trade as a hedge for my fat-finger, I think it was a "success" - I was able to convert original naked put into a defined-risk trade, plus gave myself a chance to come out at break even or better. If I was not so obsessed with keeping the "lottery ticket," I think I would be able to close it at break-even much sooner (by choosing longer term short legs at higher strikes - my lowest short strike was $900!).
If I look at this trade as a poor man's covered put, I think it was a disaster. TSLA experienced so much volatility during this time, which is what I was expecting (after-shocks), but it took me soooo long to get to break-event. One of the reasons for this was that I tried to push the trade and was choosing weekly options for short legs in order to maximize the un-covered time in the market for the long leg. The Santa Clause rally really hurt my long leg and it was a "miracle" that I got to make any money on it at all.
As I mentioned before, the main "improvement" would be for the long leg to include earnings release. Other than that, I'm not sure how I could've improved it(we don't know what we don't know). I think people mentioned favorable skew, but I don't feel like there is enough edge there to rely on(I maybe way wrong on this). One thing I really hate about this trade is how much baby-siting it required. With long options, I always get pressured from the time ticking and I feel like it forces me to be less patient in waiting for a good spots to sell premium. Scaling would help with this, but I doubt it would make it much easier or profitable. I think I'm starting to understand why many people here just set up structures like butterflies in a set-it-and-forget-it fashion. The only reason I started experimenting with options it to be less involved with markets on a day to day basis, not more involved.
I still have two other "earnings plays" outstanding which are not going smoothly either, so let's see if they convince me to give up on this idea for good.
Red arrow below is the day I opened the $990 calendar spread. The green arrows are the days I traded the short legs against my long leg.