Account up +46,9% since beginning of 2004
- Thread starter heilbronner
- Start date
Actually, it matters a great deal.
40% on 1 trade tells us nothing about the trader's skill.
40% on 100 trades tells us a great deal about a trader's skill.
Simple example
if I make 1 trade for a 40bp profit tgt/loss stop and lever up 100x, I have a 50% chance of realizing 40% by luck alone.
if I make 100 trades for the same 40bp profit tgt/loss stop unlevered, I have a zero chance (0.5^100) of realizing 40% by luck alone.
I'm putting my money on the guy who returns 40% on 100 trades.
As for 10K vs 100K. I agree, it doesn't really matter. But once you start getting to bigger numbers like $100M, you start hitting capacity limits for certain strategies.
My account is flat for 2004, but my biggest gainer in the last twelve months was sur.v (cdnx:sur for quote.com users), +1250%
Sadly, I only bought $2k worth. Its now paying for grad school.
Regards,
--laz
Sadly, I only bought $2k worth. Its now paying for grad school.
Regards,
--laz
First of all it has nothing to do with percentages besides like someone else said, it is percentage of what that matters to most of us.
As to what difference does it make? Would you rather make 42% on a 10K account or 4.2% on a million dollar account?
If it was one trade how do figure that is better? Almost all of us here would take a repeatable trading strategy that produced 10% a month over that "one trade" that could easy be a non-repeatable outlier. The statistically probability of finding 40%+ trades consistently are almost NIL. 10% a month, difficult but possible.
People are trying to flush out the details because the orginal posting had no real context. For all we know from the orgional post the guy could have bought JDSU at 100 two years ago in the account rode it all the way down and then when it popped the last few weeks. boom! there' the account would be up 42% this year probably.
It wouldn't mean anything.
Now were getting a bit more details but still like someone else said how do you make 42% if your somewhat hedged. There is likely a monster trade the guy had. Or the account is leveraged, or he bought a bunch of penny stocks and they popped.
The bottom line is were just curious why the account is up 46%. Should this tread continue it will be more interesting also as someone else alluded to, how the account is doing in 6 months or how it did last year, etc.
>>and if he made this 40+% with only one trade that's even better<<<
Really?? One trade with a 46% return does not make him a trader, it makes him LUCKY.
>>>What difference does it make whether his account is $10,000 or $100K<<<
Plenty of difference, while trading a 10K account you might have all your dough in one trade. Would you put 100K into that same trade??
This affects your % return.
He has responded with 85 trades in January, and I now say "well done!".
Sorry if you believe my questions and statements were nonsense, hope this clears it up.
He has responded with 85 trades in January, and I now say "well done!".
His market neutral strategy has an obvious upside bias- otherwise how did he make those returns if he was market neutral.
How will he handle his draw-downs if the market reverses sometime in the future? Will he start overtrading ? Maybe his 85 trades were netting him .5% on average with no losers . How will he respond if he gets a 10% loss(ie 20 winning trades worth) will he hold on because his belief system has given him over confidence that the market will come back and he will be able to get out with his .5% profit thus maintaining his 100% win ratio.
Or is he leveraged big time and a 10% fall would wipe him out.
Sorry but we can all get lucky. If it is not luck then why is he so euphoric about the result that he feels that he needs to tell everyone about it.
My friends will tell you that they cant tell whether I am making money or not because
a. I dont get euphoric about a winning streak
b. I dont get down over a losing streak
Obviously I have some great months and like everyone I have some less great months. It is how you handle it over time that counts.
His market neutral strategy has an obvious upside bias- otherwise how did he make those returns if he was market neutral.
How will he handle his draw-downs if the market reverses sometime in the future? Will he start overtrading ? Maybe his 85 trades were netting him .5% on average with no losers . How will he respond if he gets a 10% loss(ie 20 winning trades worth) will he hold on because his belief system has given him over confidence that the market will come back and he will be able to get out with his .5% profit thus maintaining his 100% win ratio.
Or is he leveraged big time and a 10% fall would wipe him out.
Sorry but we can all get lucky. If it is not luck then why is he so euphoric about the result that he feels that he needs to tell everyone about it.
My friends will tell you that they cant tell whether I am making money or not because
a. I dont get euphoric about a winning streak
b. I dont get down over a losing streak
Obviously I have some great months and like everyone I have some less great months. It is how you handle it over time that counts.
I love these kind of threads
You never see these kinds of threads when people are losing money
So how much are you up on that little account you refuse to disclose?
I'm guessing profit of $5000 or less
BTW - I am up about $30,000 this month but I don't need to showoff here
Will let my bank account do all the talking as it grows and grows
You never see these kinds of threads when people are losing money
So how much are you up on that little account you refuse to disclose?
I'm guessing profit of $5000 or less
BTW - I am up about $30,000 this month but I don't need to showoff here
Will let my bank account do all the talking as it grows and grows
I was Nok Eurex calls long, which made more than 1000% with very small investment.
Apart, I use calls, naked calls, puts and naked puts on all US-options exchanges and especially Eurex as well. Trading a mix of stocks and these derivatives IMHO makes the difference.
Still:
85 trades
long/short equity neutral
small percentage in derivatives.
This will be the last post from me regarding this topic.
Good luck to everybody.
One more thing. My performance for January is right now 50% due to some Eurex DAX puts.
Bon voyage.
Bon voyage.