which objectively you have been
First:
I can see why'd you say that, but with Bitcoin below its all time high, it's very clearly a subjective rather than objective call.
Second:
You're confusing what I'm actually saying.
I never said there was no money to be made in a speculative bubble. I don't doubt that there is still money to be made. There were plenty of people who made money on the south sea bubble or on pets.com. But how many of those people just managed to do so out of pure luck?
You're assuming someone manages to get out at the right time and manages to do so by something other than pure luck.
If I get to assume that, Enron becomes a no-brainer investment where someone could have made 2x their investment in a single year. There's a lot of even blatantly fraudulent companies that become "great investments" if we get to cherry pick dates. Crazy Eddie's could have net you about 10x profit.
The obvious argument is that "Bitcoin isn't fraudulent, you know what you have" and that is true, but like a fraudulent company, it is a non-productive asset. The only way you get out more than you put in, is for someone else in the future to get out less than they put in. I'll grant that theoretically that could continue in indefinitely, but the trouble is that it reaches a terminal state.
Try this simple thought exercise. Imagine that you had all the Bitcoins in existence and you had spent $1 acquiring them. Someone else comes along and buys them for $10. You you've made $9, but the person who acquired them, has no assurance that someone else in the future will offer even more. Unlike a stock or bond there are no earnings to prop up the price, or compensate someone for holding it. You can imagine a scenario for a while where more and more people keep buying, bidding up the price. Ten, 10x increases is possible, but thirty 10x increases, I think not. Eventually you hit saturation. Eventually new real assets are not being created fast enough to create outsized growth in the value of Bitcoin and it can no longer grow at a rate faster than GDP. At that point it's doomed... Probably before that point. At some point people come to understand that it's only backed by the hope that if will appreciate faster than other assets and as it gets bigger, the odds of that get smaller and smaller.
To put it simply as the size of Bitcoin market cap increases it's correlation to other assets increases. (Until people realize it's doomed and run for the exits.)
