10:01 ET US median new home price falls 9.7% from year ago to $217k :

Quote from drsteph:

IMHO, this correction is too long in coming. The longer it draws out the more protracted the pain, but that's how we like to take our pain in this country - long and drawn out.

A house is a place to live. A mortgage provides you with a way to buy the house. When buying is cheaper than renting, its a good thing. If renting is cheaper than buying, then you most likely won't buy until your needs exceed what you can find renting.

But what I don't get is married couples getting out, starting a family, and going to buy some 6000sf mcmansion(tm) the upkeep costs of which will rape them alive, filled with wasted space (500sf bathrooms - how many feet do you need to relieve yourself in?) and vaulted 20 foot ceilings which are impossibly expensive to heat and cool and echo like crazy.

You need 2000 sf for you and your s.o. and perhaps up to two kids while they are young. That's all. When they get older, you move up to a 3500 sf home if you want to. A nice 50's style ranch does it just fine.

And lo and behold - that's now the new hot design style - the return of the 50's home with current upgrades.

requiescat im pacem, uselessly large homes in bland neutral colors.

(Although I will be happy to pick up one of the larger and well built homes from the 50's-60's when they become sufficiently depressed in price and reno it.)

Sorry, bit of a rant.

Well said, my wife are planning on have kids. Right now we have 2700 sf for the two of us, plus a 1000sf unfinished basement. My motivation to make more money trading is to pay for a cleaning service! :D We realized even with kids we could go down to 1800 sf. My mom lived in a country house in upstate NY with 3 siblings and 2 parents in 1800 sf. They managed just fine. Most Europeans don't even own a damn house. If we sell this place I may just downsize and pay cash in a couple of years. No mortgage, that would be beautiful. That would be stree free trading at it's best!:)
 
housing prices in west la, santa monica, beverly hills, have not gone down at all...... nada zip

in fact i would say they are more expensive than last year, or at least equal

I see no sign of this 17% drop in prices here
 
If history is any key, this will take many years to sort out.

Lets look at this from a stock perspective and then contrast/compare it to the housing situation.

It took two years for Yahoo to go from its high in 2000 to its low before it started going up. Now keep in mind, Yahoo, the stock, is a highly traded equity where people simply push a button and liquidate.

Houses are much harder to liquidate. So given it took 2 years for a highly inflated equity to go from a frothy top to a spectacular bottom. How long would it take for the housing sector to go from top to bottom?

It will take many years, at least 3-5 to see the bottom. I wouldnt go near mortgage companies or homebuilders. I dont believe there will be a bottom. Now they might be short term trades, but I would not touch them as a long term investment. I dont think the bottom has been seen and wont be seen for another 3-5.

In the meantime, unfortunately, there will be those who are FORCED to buy a house for one reason or another. These people will be buying in on a downwardly trading investment much like those who chose to buy Yahoo in 2001 thinking that the bottom was near. Its those people who will have to wait several years until the value is fully back into their house. That is the sad part.

I did work for Wells Fargo during the 90s in California. I can tell you that I was still receiving calls from people who were backward on their houses as late as 1997. There were many people who sold for a loss in the 90s. Yep, its true.
 
Quote from jasonjm:

housing prices in west la, santa monica, beverly hills, have not gone down at all...... nada zip

in fact i would say they are more expensive than last year, or at least equal

I see no sign of this 17% drop in prices here

some zips just buck the trend....but they will sit on the market alot longer...
 
Quote from ElCubano:

some zips just buck the trend....but they will sit on the market alot longer...

Interestingly, in our area (central FL) prices are down only 3% close to the center of Orlando, and things are moving. Slowly, but they are moving. Not sure if this is the DCB (Dead cat bounce) or if it just represents sufficient demand to mitigate the lousy housing market. Six to 9 months or so should tell the tale.
 
What is your opinion on real estate in the Mid-west, or in places where RE wasn't part of the boom? Would any of you own property there? I own a small rental in KC, and from Zillow.com, it shows a pretty nice appreciation within the last year (not sure of how accurate it is...). But in anycase, I'm curious to see what others think.
 
Quote from Maharaja:

What is your opinion on real estate in the Mid-west, or in places where RE wasn't part of the boom? Would any of you own property there? I own a small rental in KC, and from Zillow.com, it shows a pretty nice appreciation within the last year (not sure of how accurate it is...). But in anycase, I'm curious to see what others think.

The most dangerous places are formerly hot areas. Mid-west will probably do fine.
 
Quote from Maharaja:

What is your opinion on real estate in the Mid-west, or in places where RE wasn't part of the boom? Would any of you own property there? I own a small rental in KC, and from Zillow.com, it shows a pretty nice appreciation within the last year (not sure of how accurate it is...). But in anycase, I'm curious to see what others think.

Think it depends on what the local economy is based upon.

If the local industrial base is manufacturing (like flint MI - aside, one of the highest crime cities in the country now), forget it. Would get rid of that in a hurry. I think the rust belt is in for some severe pain - its the real "new south." But will be cheap to pick up unimproved land there eventually.

If the local industrial base is either services, or farming & other food processing areas, or related to mining, logging, etc... should be OK because those areas are less likely to be outsourced, resulting in loss of jobs, etc.

Favorable tax structures in FL and NV should keep real estate relatively bid as retirees continue to move to these areas to maintain their portfolios intact. Not saying that you'll make money there - you just will be less likely to lose money longer term on a properly priced property.
 
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