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I think everyone realizes this is a 2-horse race now.

I get that. FWIW, my "oversold" is very contextual and not just some oscillator but I understand how that can be misinterpreted.

Because the market was oversold, sentiment negative, cycles / seasonality turning positive so the market was ready to move upward. You need to question your assumptions about the relevance of government data, which also is lagging data.

Explaining market moves with government data is useless.

I'm not in this position but there is some decent upward momentum in this right now. I'm expecting 1.29 before 1.23.

Let's see the charts!

The up cycles have played out nicely since March 10 time frame. Also, hedge funds were overly short going into CPI. Doh!

There was the buy point last Thursday.

Not surprising. Govt has to slow/stop the flow of funds out of banks and into crypto or we'll have more financial system issues.

I would just say "you would think we would have fallen 15%" rather than actually should have. Otherwise, I pretty much agree with you on everything else. The fact we didn't, the fact that the S&P and NDX both finished up on the week, was pretty telling. If you're trying to trade based on how...

not seeing a reversal yet -- still looking for low over next couple of days.

If this market is similar to prior lows, I would expect an afternoon reversal around 1:30 or so. Let's see what happens.

Very possible this is the seasonal / cyclical low with tailwinds now thru May.

Do you feel better now that you got that all out?

If you argue for your limitations you get to keep them.

Overnight: You just can’t believe that it’s possible to read the tape in advance of news. That’s the lens you see the market through and that is why you remain where you are as a trader.

While there may have been a catalyst, the market was already setting up. Meaning, sometimes the market is poised to move in a certain direction and someone just needs to light the match and drop it on the pile of gas covered logs. Today was an example of that. Some folks didn't need to wait...

Depends on how long you're looking to hold

Well, the reality is that your primary income is not from trading, so that, in itself, can create some complacency, lack of focus, or lack of discipline. Do you have a defined trading plan which lays out your process and rewards and punishments for not following the process? I mean, what if...

March 8-14 would be a good place to be looking for an intermediate-term low.