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I think he means the share price is too expensive...

So I was only half-tard on that one, and did not read the title of the thread and see you were asking about exercising not rolling. I have a sell side option bias. Anyways, only the 199 Oct3 call should be exercised and it is only nominally worth it. SPY 201.76 @ 15:42 shows 199 Oct3 puts at...

Unless I have gone full retard, the dividend is irrelevant for those LONG calls. Only those who are SHORT calls where the same strike+expiry put is worth LESS than the dividend will see their short calls exercised. Being long, you should early exercise your calls if the corresponding puts are...

I am not an expert on this, but my observations are if the order is being SMART routed, it will not show up in the orderbook whereas when it displays an exchange for the order, it does show up. I always hover my mouse over the green arrow next to an order to see its status. Working on SMART =...

Careful to not view the probabilities in isolation. There is an innate relationship between probability and risk-reward. Change one, the other changes. Remember, to be profitable, you have to overcome the balance of these two variables. Also, remember that the probability is a function of...

Jones, Most of these trades are directional. Do you have a reasonable reason for picking the direction you did? I too follow Tasty Trades but early on realized many of Tom's trades are based on hunches. Following Case, remember the YHOO trade, he f'd that one up huge betting directional...

braincell, I too found securities I own with less than 250M cap that were not on the list. I contacted support and confirmed that only those on the list are subject to the margin change. **But the representative stated multiple times that "margin increases can occur at any time"** As...

Yeah, not very clear, so let's start with the table I meant to have in the first post--basically the levels using 2% threshold... 10.82 10.61 10.40 10.20 10.00 9.80 9.61 9.42 9.24 9.06 8.88 8.71 You start at $10 (just a number, nice and round). So you sell after a 2% gain or...

Interesting 'discussion' if we wish to call it that and I thank the OP for getting the ball rolling. I think there is one item missing that may or may not be pertinent to the discussion. Trading around the position, not just averaging down. I basically do this in my wife's IRA and it...

First time through, nonetheless, still cannot make money in the market, so what good are all these smarts??

Just a heads up that I keep sharing everywhere I see someone SIM'ing with TOS. Their order fill algorithm used to absolute crap, buying the bid, selling the ask, such that you always gain on the spread. This was limit orders, I am not sure how market orders are filled. They may have updated...

OKAY! I found the answer myself. Some of you suggested monte carlo, others suggested that there is NO normal distribution, and others said trading results are normally distributed but is proprietary info from the brokerages. Well I will share with all of you generous people the results of...

tlow, Been lurking, nice journal so far with great contributors. Just a heads up--ToS sim is very unrealistic. I believe it buys the bid and sells the ask leading to gross overestimates of PnL. I was burned a few years back on this (so it may be fixed). Good luck and thanks for...

Lots of good stuff so far, but, I'm thinking that there may be too much emphasis on reproducing the results of these particular conditions exactly. There are a lot of little details that may cause my sims to be different in some areas. I think the effect has made it through though. Overall, the...

Craig, Been busy with other things, but two quick comments, thoughts. 1) The random distribution we are using (as far as I know) is a uniform distribution, not Gaussian about mean = 0.5. Excel's rand() is as likely to give .1 or .9 as it is .5, unlike a normal distribution. AND, as I just...

Craig, I may see where you are going with that idea...are you asking if the random # component is the "new information" and the "long" or "hold" component as the original decision? So, to paraphrase and use Monty Hall semantics. The original condition C2>C1 is your original door selection...

You're right, after closely looking at the curves they are symmetrical, but commissions must be significant. They are reducing your profit by 2/3. Just FYI, for my test, I assume smooth transactions (no commish, no slippage), but, of course, that is not real life. Just makes things easy to...

Craig66, Curious about this result. If the condition is reversed, aka go short rather than long, the equity curve should just be a mirror image about the 0 line, or so I would think. Let's keep testing! masterjaz

Craig, That's where my current understanding is as well. As I read Mike's statement, he is superimposing two distributions 1) the close-close distribution (what ever distribution it follows) and 2) the uniform random distribution (which is not normal!). Now, I am trying to visual what the...

TJ, having had some fun with distributions over the last few weeks, a question or two. Do you mean the per trade pnl should be roughly normally distributed? (I would personally think the %pnl would be a better variable) or what statistic should be normally distributed? Having played with...