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Offset WTI-Brent Spread at -$10.26 for a loss of $1.86.

Bought WTI-Brent Spread at -$8.40.

Nine_Ender, Thank you for your encouragement and earlier constructive criticism. In response to your criticism (after paying a hefty price), on Jan. 14 I stated that "I will implement some type of risk-management strategy for future trades," which resulted in a stop at 1,273. I do not...

Jan. 20, 2011 Analysis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the correction will continue." Today the market did drop as many as 10 points despite various encouraging economic news in the morning pointing to the strengthening economic recovery. In the end the market pared most of the...

Stopped out at 1,273

Jan. 19, 2011 Analysis: The Analysis on Jan. 14 predicted that "the market will continue its upward move until 1,300-1,320 range before it runs out of steam." Today the market entered its correction phase that is long over due. Despite upbeat earnings from bellwether companies IBM and...

Sold at 1,294

Covered short at $1.3442 for a loss of $0.0057.

Short another March 2011 Euro at 1.3370

Short March 2011 Euro at 1.3400

It is the December jobs report that changed my position from long to short because much fewer jobs were created. But in hindsight the force of the Bulls was too strong, and even a subsequent disappointing January jobs report could not stop the Bulls' momentum. (To use an analogous situation...

Analysis: The bull market continued its run today despite discouraging Consumer Sentiment on the backdrop of upbeat earnings from JP Morgan. The market will continue its upward move until 1,300-1,320 range before it runs out of steam. Strategy: Offset short at 1,290 for a loss of...

Nine_Ender, It appears that you and I are predicting the market actions in two different time horizons. I never disagree that we are in a bull market, but I only predict a correction of 3% in the current bull market. To put our differences concisely, you predict ¡°an upward move next few...

Nine_Ender, Given the overly bullish sentiment, hardly any Bulls have not already been long, and hardly any Bears dare to remain short, so I do not see a reason for the market to rally further. To the contrary, the market is inching higher on a thin trading volume, potentially paving the way...

Dec. 27, 2010 Analysis: Many signs point to an overly optimistic market. VIX has dropped to the lowest since April 12, and the 10-day average of the CBOE's equity put/call ratio has stayed below 0.5 for eight consecutive days. Also, the CBOE's Implied Correlation Index has risen steadily...

Mercor, Thank you for your comment. The S&P's intraday high and low in 2007 and 2009 were 1,576 and 666, respectively, so 666+(1576-666)*61.8%=1,228. Please lay out your calculation if you arrive at a dufferent number. Thanks. Dr. Chen

Dec. 21, 2010 Analysis: Today the market continued its upward trend. However, the RSI has risen above 70 and is indicating a short-term correction due to an overbought condition. Strategy: Hold short at 1238.55

Dec. 20, 2010 Analysis: Today's market continued to creep higher in an otherwise uneventful day. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the market will test the 1,250-1,251 resistance but will trade in a range. Strategy: Hold short at 1238.55

Dec. 17, 2010 Analysis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the cross current of economic news from the US and Europe will continue the tug of war between the Bulls and Bears." Today the market traded in a range and finished slightly higher. Looking ahead to next week, the market will...

Nine_Ender, On Dec. 15 you stated, “you nor I can know for sure what the future effect of news will actually be the next day.” What you mean is that even if the future news is known in advance (say, by WikiLeaks), the EFFECT of the news on the market cannot be known. Then on Dec. 16 you...