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  1. J

    The Dow and the S&P 500 Are on the Brink of a Bear Market

    I use this chart in the post to move out of very long term 401k money when there is a monthly close -1.5% (or greater) below the 40mma. Most Bear drops are -45% to -55% (-50% average) below the highest peak value of the last Bull Market. So in the current case, 3400 minus -45% to -55% is 1,870...
  2. J

    The Dow and the S&P 500 Are on the Brink of a Bear Market

    Based on many decades of living this scenario, the market is at the point of demarcation determining Bull versus Bear market. If we have a monthly closing candle on March 31st, -1.5% below (or greater) the 40 month moving average (brown line), this technical measurement has lead to a Bear...
  3. J

    High Probability Trend Strategy

    It took me 9 years, 30,000 hours and ten's of thousands of dollars to develop what your looking for. Do you seriously think anyone is just going to hand that over?
  4. J

    Why is SPY holding at near-record highs with demand driving bond yields down and gold soaring?

    Could you please share with us the real reasons?
  5. J

    Why is SPY holding at near-record highs with demand driving bond yields down and gold soaring?

    I was hoping for a more in depth answer. Like in the case of: 1: The bear market of 2000-2002, where earnings could no longer sustain stock prices. 2: or the Crisis of 2008-2009 where subprime mortgage bonds took down world economies. What specific event (or events) "this time," will be...
  6. J

    Why is SPY holding at near-record highs with demand driving bond yields down and gold soaring?

    Here is the million dollar question for all you knowledgeable gentlemen: "What chain of events will it take to turn this 10 year Bull Market into a Bear Market?"
  7. J

    The S&P 500 will top soon at 2925-2930

    We are right at a triple top. Will the SP500 cleanly breakout above the top, or will it fail? [SP500, 1 Year, Daily Candles]
  8. J

    Day Trading Options is a bad idea. Anyone else?

    That's a really good question and you may not like the answer but I have learned to live with it. Because I am looking for a discounted entry with respect to the closing price of the option, I only average about 7 to 8 trades a month. Your correct, that is part of the higher W/L. I do use a...
  9. J

    Day Trading Options is a bad idea. Anyone else?

    Here is another interesting thing about day trading options versus giving the trade 2 to 3 days to play out. Per every 100 trades that I complete (Sell or Stop), here is the time it takes to create a modest (+25% to +30%) profit: Trades that complete on Day 1: 44 Trades that complete on Day 2...
  10. J

    Day Trading Options is a bad idea. Anyone else?

    In the last 21 years of trading mathematical mechanical systems, I have traded and forward (actual trade) tested every possible combination of profit goal versus stop amount, and each combination was traded and forward (actual trade) tested several years per combination. The combination that...
  11. J

    Day Trading Options is a bad idea. Anyone else?

    The spread problem is why I only trade SPY options: .01 to .02 Bid to Ask Spread. Look for option strikes that have volume of 10,000 or >.
  12. J

    I missed 2 questions: Position Sizing / and or Hedge. I use approximately 10% of my account for...

    I missed 2 questions: Position Sizing / and or Hedge. I use approximately 10% of my account for each trade, but only -2.5% of my account is at risk because of the Stop. I do not Hedge. Per 100 trades: Sell or Stop in how many trade days? 1st Day = 44 / 2nd Day = 45 / 3rd Day = 11
  13. J

    The formula for 2nd Buys is: Buy 1 is > 1.70, Buy 2 is -20% less than Buy 1. Buy 1 is 1.70 or...

    The formula for 2nd Buys is: Buy 1 is > 1.70, Buy 2 is -20% less than Buy 1. Buy 1 is 1.70 or less, Buy 2 is -17% less than Buy 1. Sell Limit: +.20 above Buy 1. Stop: -.20 below Buy 2.
  14. J

    2nd buys do not occur often, only about 9% of the time. 2nd buys require that I watch the TWS...

    2nd buys do not occur often, only about 9% of the time. 2nd buys require that I watch the TWS all day looking for them; versus a single buy only requires setting up a semi automated Bracket Order and walking away. So entering 2nd buys are dependent upon, "do I have the time today to watch the...
  15. J

    Sell Limit Profit is dependent on Entry Price: Entry 1.60 and > = +.50 / Entry > 1.40 but < 1.60...

    Sell Limit Profit is dependent on Entry Price: Entry 1.60 and > = +.50 / Entry > 1.40 but < 1.60 = +.45 / Entry 1.40 and under +.40.
  16. J

    If a trend is predominantly strong and nothing is filling, I use options with a lower closing...

    If a trend is predominantly strong and nothing is filling, I use options with a lower closing price (1.50 to 2.00), because the entry formula for cheaper priced options is as follows: Close > 2.05= -25% / Close > 1.70 to 2.05 = -20% / Close 1.70 and under = -17%.
  17. J

    I do use a mean-reversion strategy within a defined trend. 2 trade elements are working for...

    I do use a mean-reversion strategy within a defined trend. 2 trade elements are working for you. Fill rates are not great (7 per month average), but this strategy creates a higher W/L ratio (70% or >). When 3 consecutive trade days do not fill, I add +.10 to the entry formula.
  18. J

    I maintain a Risk to Reward of 1:1. So if an option closes at 2.50, my entry is Closing Price...

    I maintain a Risk to Reward of 1:1. So if an option closes at 2.50, my entry is Closing Price -25%( 2.50 -25%=1.90) Buy Limit=1.90 / Sell Limit=2.40 / Stop=1.40 (+.50 Profit or -.50 Loss)
  19. J

    The S&P 500 will top soon at 2925-2930

    You asked for my trade tomorrow and I kindly replied with that information you wanted, and now you are asking me to go away? Ok
  20. J

    The S&P 500 will top soon at 2925-2930

    "Thank you for the kind words." It took an extreme intellect to compose your kind post. Here's my trade for tomorrow: Trade Date 06-06; SPY (expires June 21) JUN285C Option Today's Data: Previous Close = 1.70; Open = 2.21; High = 2.33; Low= 1.60; Today's Close = 2.30 Bracket Order: Buy Limit=...
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