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Yep. That's another question. Trump seemed to beat his poll numbers by 3% or so the past two cycles. Will that reverse this cycle? I guess I'd put the odds over 50% that Trump beats his numbers again. And, if he does, then instead of being up roughly 1.5% in the tipping point state he may be up...

I think the bias of PA relative to the nation might be smaller this cycle, as minorities tend to be moving toward Trump, and Biden does better with whites. Biden may not run up the popular vote score as much in NY and CA, but still eek out a tight victory in PA/MI/WI. Thus T could conceivably...

Another update from Insight Forecasts: Basically, on average, a slight movement toward Biden in the polls, markets, and model. Biggest one is probably the recontacted NYTimes swing state poll.

Several very good Trump polls yesterday, including a Rasmussen +5. https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls I'd discount any one, but the 'Morning consult' one erased a post-trial decline. Trumps odds at Insight Prediction and Poly back up as well.

Trump is still favored in the betting markets. Polymarket has him at 53-54 and Insight Prediction has him at 52.5-53.8. They are only down maybe a point or two since conviction. I tend to think the markets are about right. Biden is too old, and T was harmed by Covid in the last election...