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Talk to management at local prop trading firms, if they think your idea is legit and find your personality a good fit, you'll get bankrolled.

Looking forward to your journal. And thanks for having created this place for us for so many years.

agreed. Harvest has been priced in, it'll take significant change in next S. Am. season expectations for a big swing.

just started to track this. Completely missed the dip buying opportunity a few weeks ago. Not very bullish into the spring though. https://bastion.substack.com/p/cbot-corn-implied-sentiment

Yeah, cot swap positions and EIA production/demand data have been implying bullishness since early August,

congrats, you deserve a cookie.

too "decentralized" for defi

quantamental model outlook for NGz21 median price expectation at $5.5 by end of Oct., statistical fit details are available here.

Estimated NGx21 likely price distribution for Oct., based on storage, cot positions, CPI, with quantile regression: Estimated Median level at $5.5~

Latest model price bias is still bullish, I will also begin to estimate probably price distribution for the coming month, of the 2nd expiration futures. Current median forecast is at $80~

updated quantamental model outlookcis still bullish for the coming month,

IronFist, Have you given up on option trades? I remember a few months back you had a series of questions around very basic option concepts. Trying to compete against execution algos via click trades is not likely to end with a positive expectation.

interesting article, thanks

I think the article may have been taken off. Here's a PDF of the original.

You must think selling into this is a creative idea. Here's a fund that just got wrecked being short,

thanks here's the latest, I'll keep it updated at the substack, https://bastion.substack.com/p/bitcoin-fair-valuation-update-d44/comments

that's a very interesting observation, thank you for having shared this.

Low probability event, we'll likely need a significant short term demand spike to get there. Why? Current average production cost is at $35K~ Even though price has touched the higher end of the range in the past, which IS currently above $100K, it doesn't happen often. Where is fair value...

updated quantamental model outlook, still bullish.